Preliminary Quantitative Study Of Thunderstorm-induced Flight Delays

In recent years,weather has become the most important factor causing flight delays,and thunderstorms are the most important meteorological factors in weather causes,making it worthwhile to study flight delays caused by thunderstorms.Based on the METAR data of ZUUU Airport from 2015 to 2017 and the airline operation data of the main base at ZUUU Airport,this paper analyzes the characteristics of flight delays during thunderstorms in the thunderstorm season,and integrates thunderstorm data on the basis of operational data.The company's delays in thunderstorms have made more accurate predictions and supported airline decision-making.The details are as follows:According to the METAR data,the thunderstorm season is divided,and the delay of ZUUU Airport thunderstorm season is more serious than other months.The number of flights that take off and arrive at the delay increases with the season.Moreover,the delay rate of thunderstorms such as July and August is related to the number of thunderstorm days.The delay of thunderstorm days not only caused the flight delay rate of the day to increase,but also affected the next day's flight.The delay in flight during the thunderstorm season is longer than the average annual delay,and the delay level is relatively high.In order to predict flight delays better during the thunderstorm season,air operations decision support is given.Based on historical data,using the convolutional neural network model,take the takeoff,arrival airport,planned takeoff,and arrival time as the main features,and integrating the thunderstorm data of planned takeoff and arrival time,it can more accurately predict the takeoff and arrival delay of the flight,and classify and forecast.Overall improvement of 5% accuracy.In response to flight delays caused by a strong thunderstorm,using a time series study method,it was found that the real large-area delay period is about 1-3 hours after the thunderstorm,and it takes at least 7 hours to return to normal due to the backlog caused by thunderstorms.For the flight delay study in the thunderstorm season,combined with the existing data and forecasting methods,with the cooperation of civil aviation organizations,it is better to release flights at appropriate time periods,improve the operational efficiency of airlines,and keep flight safety and reduce losses.