An Empirical Study On Heterogeneity Of Migration Flow In High-speed Railway Construction

Since the reform and opening up,the rapid development of the economy has led to the rapid advancement of urbanization,and the population of China's cities has also grown.In 2017,China's urban population was 813.47 million,accounting for 58.52%of the total population.According to the results of the sixth national census,China's urban population increased by 207 million from 2000 to 2010,and the rural population decreased by 133 million.The growth of migration played an important role in the growth of urban population.The spatial distribution of China's migration flow is concentrated from the central and western regions to the developed coastal areas.The main population inflow areas include the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The root cause of population movement is the economic income gap between regions,and transportation infrastructure is also a factor affecting migration flow.High-speed railways have developed rapidly,and they are characterized by punctuality,speed,safety and comfort,which play an increasingly important role in population movement.In 2017,China's high-speed railway has reached 25,000 kilometers,ranking first in the world.It is one of the most densely-connected countries in the world.The"Medium and Long-Term Railway Network Plan" puts forward new requirements for the development of high-speed railways in the future.The mileage of high-speed railways will reach 38,000 kilometers by 2025 connecting provincial capitals and large and medium-sized cities.With the gradual improvement of China's high-speed railway network,the continuous development of high-speed rail will inevitably have a certain impact on migration.This paper mainly studies the impact of high-speed rail construction on migration flow,and analyzes whether there is heterogeneity impact of high-speed rail construction on migration flow.This paper is divided into five parts.The first part is the introduction,which introduces the research background and significance,the interpretation of related concepts,the research content and structure,research methods and innovations and deficiencies.The second part is a literature review,which mainly reviews the reality of migration flow in China and related theoretical explanations,and sorts out the related research on transportation conditions and migration flow,high-speed railway and migration flow.The third part analyzes the basic situation and correlation of high-speed rail construction and migration flow.The fourth part is the empirical analysis of city difference and regional heterogeneity of high-speed rail construction on population movements.The first section analyzes the theoretical mechanism of high-speed rail construction affecting migration flow.The second section is heterogeneity test of population flow in high-speed rail construction.The PSM-DID method is used to empirically test the impact of population flow in China's high-speed rail construction.The measurement results show that,on the whole,the high-speed rail Construction can promote the inflow of urban migrants High-speed rail construction can promote the flow of people in large cities and attract people to the population;the population attraction of small and medium-sized cities is not obvious,and even negative impacts.The impact of high-speed rail construction in the middle region on migration flow is stronger than that in the eastern region.The construction of high-speed rail in the western region has accelerated the process of population outflow.This shows that China's current large-scale urban agglomeration plays a leading role,high-speed rail construction can attract people to continue to flow,while the population concentration of cities in the eastern region declines,and the population concentration in the middle region gradually increases.In the third section,the synthetic control method is used as a tool to analyze the cities with high-speed rails opened in 2010 as a sample.According to the degree of economic development,it is divided into developed regions and underdeveloped regions.The results show that the construction of high-speed rail promotes the growth of the migration and attracts the flow of people.From a regional perspective,compared with developed regions,high-speed rail construction in large cities in underdeveloped regions attract more.The fifth part is the conclusions and suggestions.The following ssuggestions are proposed:(1)Focus on the construction of high-speed railway construction in large cities,to build a tighter high-speed rail network based on existing high-speed rail lines,and to achieve a high-speed network distribution.(2)With the help of the rising strategy of the middle region,support the investment in high-speed rail construction in the central cities.(3)Small and medium-sized cities should not blindly follow the construction of high-speed rails and attach importance to the long-term nature of urbanization planning.The innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)In the research object,the high-speed railway construction factor is included in the research framework of China's migration flow.In terms of research content,considering city difference and regional heterogeneity,city and regional differences are classified.(2)In the selection of measurement methods,methods such as PSM-DID method and synthetic control method(SCM)are used to avoid sample selection bias to some extent and solve endogenous problems.This paper has the following shortcomings:(1)In terms of data application,this paper uses the difference between resident population and registered population to account for the proportion of permanent population,which may be related to the real population.(2)This paper mainly focuses on empirical analysis,and the specific transmission path of high-speed rail construction on population movement needs further discussion.