Wind Speed Simulation Model Of Wind Farm For Yantai Area

In recent years,wind power has been developing rapidly due to the influence of global energy and environmental pressure.The large-scale use of wind power to some extent alleviate the energy crisis and environmental pressure,but also increased the total installed capacity of power grid,wind power and other power etc.but there are some differences between conventional energy,its energy comes from the wind,and the wind collecting climate movement effect of human nature,it is difficult to control,so the electric field force is random,resulting in wind farm output compared with the conventional power control and scheduling,and in recent years,affected by the new energy grid policy,scheduling and control of power system becomes complicated,the reliability of the electricity system has an important influence.The analysis and mastery of the contribution of wind power to the reliability of the power system is the basis for the development and utilization of wind energy.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out the research on the reliability evaluation of the power system with wind power.Wind speed is a physical phenomenon with time and space characteristics,which can be abstracted as a random process.This paper uses Markov series modeling of wind speed time series,the dependence structure of continuous transfer nuclear capture by using the Copula function theory,established the Markov series model based on Copula function,the case analysis shows that the probability distribution characteristics and time sequence of Markov wind model Copula function can keep the original wind speed sequence dependent on it higher model accuracy.The reliability model of large wind farm is built up by considering the characteristics of wind power conversion,wind farm wake effect and wind turbine outage.Based on the reliability model of traditional power generation system,the reliability evaluation model of wind electric power system with sequential Monte-Carlo method is established.The model is applied to a reliability test system,and the influence of wind farm capacity,wake effect and wind speed variability on power system reliability is analyzed.The results show that the model and algorithm proposed in this paper can effectively evaluate the contribution of wind farm to the power generation margin of the system.