Research On Ice Severity Maps And Icing Forecasting Model Of Hunan Power Grid

Regular supply of electric energy is the basic guarantee of human life and production.But as the global climatic environment getting worse,the frequency of ice damage is higher and higher.The two serious ice damages in 2005 and 2008 have caused great damage to power grid.This promoted researches of power grid icing in State Grid and China Southern Power Grid Company.But in order to lower the influence of power grid safe operation caused by transmission lines icing and reduce the loss caused by ice damage,it need to analyze from the source and study the causes of transmission lines icing and explore the meteorological rule of power grid icing.This paper emphasizes researches on the icing distribution of Hunan power grid and prediction of power grid icing.In addition,the project "power grid widespread freeze disaster prevention and control key technology and complete sets of equipment" has won the first prize in national progress prize in science and technology.This paper first introduced the basic climatic characteristics and geographical environment characteristics of Hunan.Combining the data from weather station and the distribution of glaze in Hunan,the main factors of Hunan transmission lines icing and focused on the severe icing damage of Hunan in 2008 are analyzed.Then five factors which include maximum-continuous glaze days?rainfall?wind speed?wind direction?temperature are selected to divide Hunan power grid ice severity maps.The effects of:icing level which influenced by micro-topography and microclimate regions of Hunan are analyzed.At last,28"day telluric effluvium" coupling factors which are influential to the large scale icing of Hunan power grid are established and came up with a long-term forecasting method which uses early winter meteorological factors to predict the days of transmission lines large scale icing in winter and build a prediction model which based on Principal Component Analysis.The truth of predictions explained the effectiveness of prediction model.The paper's research result will do favor for effects of power grid security which caused by ice damage and prevent problems in an early time.Meanwhile,it has obvious economic significance and great social meaning for power grid safety.