| In the process of promoting the strategic layout of "one belt and one road"’ economic and trade and cultural exchanges between China and the countries along the line are increasing.Under the guidance of the strategic plan,China’s high-speed rail has gradually emerged in the international arena,high-speed rail "going out" project has been a good opportunity for development.In view of the complexity of high-speed rail project investment decision-making factors and the impact of cross-border factors,China’s high-speed rail project in the world has a considerable risk.Based on this,it is urgent to study the risk assessment of cross boundary high-speed rail projects under the background of "one belt and one road" so as to improve the probability of successful projects.Firstly,by analyzing the development status of the cross border high-speed rail project under the background of "one belt and one road",this paper collated and analyzed the risk factors of China high-speed rail in cross-border construction based on the existing overseas high-speed rail projects.By comparing the common risk identification methods,the main risk factors are statistically analyzed to get the final risk list,considering the mechanism of risk and the structural relationship between the risks,this paper establishes an interpretive structural model to deal with the final list of risks in order to obtain a structural diagram between risk factors and identify the top-level risk factors.According to the top-level risk factors found by us,the evaluation index system of risk factors is established and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established.Combining with the project example of"Xinma High-speed Railway" and analyzing the risk evaluation in the decision-making stage of the project,it is concluded that " International political environment ","financing risk","deferred risk" and "operation risk" are the key risk factors of the project,which are consistent with the actual situation of the project and show the validity and rationality of the model.Finally,according to the evaluation results,the corresponding risk coping strategies and suggestions are put forward. |
