Research On The Reliability Of Power Supply For Microgrids In Islanded Operation Mode Power Prediction Concended

With the increasing exhaustion of conventional energy and the rise of distributed generation,micro grid has entered the public view as an effective way to absorb distributed power and connect the distribution network.Due to its operational flexibility and cost economy,micro grid research has become the focus of research in power energy fields.Can achieve island is one of important characteristics of the micro network operation,based on the analysis of the research at home and abroad,based on the first summarizes the micro network can be used for reliability evaluation of distribution network reliability index and traditional piconets specific reliability index,the micro element in the grid reliability model is established and the reliability of the distributed power generation system of power and energy storage model,and applying sequential monte carlo algorithm to simulation system,set up the network element fault sequence list.On how to use micro network island operation problem,to enhance the reliability of power network load the article puts forward a micro network island operation mode to forecast the wind power,photovoltaic power generation,and the reliability evaluation of load coordination algorithm.For distributed power prediction model is established and the power of the system model,take the energy storage device and soc prediction capacity priority focus on the load power supply way of guarantee,the use of power load forecast data distribution,to improve the DRTS Bus 4 test system as an example to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm,simulation results show that the applied load coordination strategy after the key load power supply reliability index has improved significantly.