Research On Community Bus Passenger Flow Forecasting And Route Optimization Based On Receiving Rail Transit

With the continuous expansion of urban scale in China,rail transit is developing rapidly,and the choice of residents’ travel modes is increasingly diversified.However,the current urban public transport planning routes are unbalanced and attach too much importance to conventional public transportation and rail transit construction.Repeatedly arranged,and the slow development of public transpor,tation on the slip road,the problem of the residents’ "last mile" travel difficulties became apparent.Most of the residents can only rely on walking,or take other travel methods to reduce the residents’ willingness to use public transportation.At this time,the community bus supplements the areas where regular buses and rail traffic cannot cover,provides convenience for residents’ public transportation,and effectively transports rail transit,increases the proportion of residents choosing public transportation,and ensures the operational efficiency of public transportation systems.This thesis first briefly states the research background and significance of the thesis,summarizes the research at home and abroad,and summarizes the problems in the current study.By introducing the concept of community bus,the relationship between community bus and conventional bus is different from that of rail transportation in order to better understand and understand the community bus.In addition,the characteristics of the passenger flow of the community bus and its influencing factors,the relationship between the community bus and the rail transit site,and the relationship between the community bus and urban land use forms.Second,the traditional "four-phase method" as the main model is relatively perfect in theory,but there are some deficiencies in the actual application.Based on the reachability model based on distance attenuation theory,the paper uses GIS raster data analysis methods to explore a new method for community bus travel forecasting.The main processes include the spatial decomposition of social economic activities,the determination of reachability model parameters and their metrics.The distribution forecast of community bus travel demand was studied.Finally,according to the basic characteristics of the community bus,the author analyzes and analyzes the influence factors and principles of site optimization and line optimization.Based on this,the planning method of community bus stops is put forward,the optimal route optimization model is established based on the objective function of the bus station with the largest service area and the minimum travel time.Site-based line network optimization can well ensure the coverage of the site.Based on the site traffic,the optimization of the track line network using genetic algorithm is discussed.First,a comprehensive analysis of community bus traffic forecasts,population distribution characteristics of the community bus station.Then,taking the Qixianling block in Dalian as an example,a case study was conducted to optimize the community bus routes using genetic algorithms and adjust the community bus routes based on the predictions and actual road network characteristics.