The Research On Equipment Reliability Evaluation Of Power Grid For Time-varying Failure Rate

Power grid equipment is the key to ensuring reliable operation of the power grid.Scientific estimating for grid equipment and system reliability indicators,making reasonable maintenance plan,discovering equipment failure in time,Can be more effective in preventing accidents,extending the service life of the equipment,it is great significance for safety operation of the system.Traditional reliability assessment always considers the equipment failure rate to be constant,ignoring the impact of operation life,maintenance plan and other factors on the equipment failure rate.Therefore,this article will use the fault tree analysis and method of P-P figure,accurate to obtain equipment in different periods,the failure rate under different maintenance plan,determine the equipment failure rate curve model,and USES the corresponding algorithm to parameter estimation of distribution function,at the same time consider the recursion backwards by the factor of equipment,a more accurate equipment throughout the whole life cycle of distribution of failure rate.Finally,the text method is applied to a certain instance,and the reliability index of power grid system is evaluated by using the method proposed in this paper.Through comparative analysis,the reliability assessment of timely variation and failure rate proposed in this paper is more authentic and credible than the traditional reliability assessment.