Intra-day Rolling Economic Dispatch Considering The Wind Power Prediction Error Interval

Wind energy is an excellent renewable energy which is environmentally friendly and has low power generation cost.However,wind power generation has the characteristics of randomness and strong volatility,making it difficult to predict accurately.Therefore,in the context of large-scale wind power grid integration to the network,studying how to estimate the error range of wind power forecast in wind farms and how to formulate appropriate scheduling strategies at different time scales has become the research focus of power system optimization scheduling under the background of large-scale wind power integration.And the studying can reduce the negative impact of qualitative to the power grid and reduce the operating cost of the system,so that the scheduling plan under different time scales can be implemented well,increase the utilization rate of wind power and reduce the wind power inaccuracy.First,an interval rolling estimation method based on hidden Markov model is proposed.This paper introduces the basic principles,functions and predictive functions of hidden Markov models.By establishing a hidden Markov model,a fast estimation of the fluctuation interval of wind power error is realized under a certain confidence level.The error interval is processed by the locally weighted regression scatter smoothing method.Taking actual data as an example,the influence of various parameter changes on the accuracy and conservatism of the hidden Markov model is analyzed.The results show that the model can give the fluctuation range of wind power prediction error.Compared with the fixed proportion method,the precision of the result is better than the fixed proportion method and the precision is higher,and it has practical application value.At the same time,this paper also establishes an intra-day rolling economic scheduling model based on the interval estimation of intra-day wind power prediction error,which describes the uncertainty of wind power in the form of interval,and considers the difference of reserve settlement price under different time scales,and the coupling of generation plan under different time scales.The result of scheduling is taken into account not only the cost by the modification of the day ahead scheduling plan,but also the cost of adjusting the reserve capacity.In this paper,the IEEE30 experimental network is used as an example to simulate the scheduling plan,which verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed scheduling strategy and the model.