Urban Low Carbon Transportation Development Model And Structure Optimization Based On System Dynamics

In recent years,with the accelerating process of urbanization,the expansion of city scale has caused a sharp increase in the number of motor vehicles.Urban transportation carbon dioxide emissions rose sharply,China is facing a huge pressure for reducing emissions.Therefore,the implementation of low-carbon traffic is imminent.It is of far-reaching significance to fully investigate and understand the urban traffic structure,passenger volume,economy,types of resources,population,etc.,and thoroughly study the intrinsic mechanism of low-carbon traffic,optimize the urban traffic structure,and reduce carbon emissions from urban transport.The urban transport system is a complex,multi-level dynamic system,whose development is constrained and influenced by a variety of factors.This article takes urban low-carbon transportation as the research object,firstly expounds the concept and connotation of low-carbon transportation,analyzes the constituent elements of urban transportation system and the interrelationships between the elements,and summarizes the problems existing in current urban transportation.Secondly,based on the principle of selection of evaluation indicators,the paper identifies the city's low-carbon traffic evaluation indicators and establishes a comprehensive weighting model based on the principal component-gray correlation degree.In addition,27 low-carbon transport pilot cities were used as examples to demonstrate.Established factors that have a major impact on urban transportation carbon emissions.From a macroscopic perspective,it has grasped the key factors for the development of urban low-carbon transportation.Then,to further clarify the causality and feedback mechanism between urban low-carbon transportation influencing factors,and analyze the effects of changing the carbon dioxide reduction effect of different influencing factors,define the dynamicdevelopment of urban traffic and the development trend in the coming years,and introduce the system dynamics model.Taking Xi'an as an example,a scenario simulation was performed on the basis of the system dynamic model of the test.By changing the different variables in the input model,different scenarios such as the baseline scenario,bus priority scenario,and car scenario are established.Analyze the operation and development changes of low-carbon transportation under different scenarios.Compare the carbon emissions of urban transportation under different scenarios,and propose specific ways to achieve low-carbon transportation in cities.Finally,with the goal of minimizing urban traffic carbon emissions and maximum urban traffic efficiency,seven constraints,such as travel restrictions and resource constraints,were determined,and a multi-objective urban traffic structure optimization model was established.Takes Xi'an as an example to apply the traffic structure optimization model to Xi'an City and use the Matlab program to solve the problem.The optimal urban traffic structure is calculated.The final result shows that the development of public transport should be strongly encouraged,the rapid spread of rail transit should be promoted,and should make use of the low-carbon advantages of new energy buses and reduce the growth rate of urban cars.Ensure that urban transport is in a good state of high efficiency,low carbon emissions,and low energy consumption.