The Simulation Study On The Shunt Capacity Of The Transit Port In Front Of The Three Gorges Dam Faced With Piled-up Ships

The Yangtze River economic belt is the most developed areas of the Yangtze River Basin,which is the largest economic zone with the highest economic density except for the coastal open areas nationwide.Relying on the golden waterway to promote the development of the Yangtze River economic belt,so as to build the Chinese economic supporting belt,being the major strategic decisions of the Party's Central Committee and the State Council,the situation and planning of China regarding the new economy situation and making the advantage of both the current and long-term benefits.However,in recent years,the economy development is rapid in the upper reaches,and the demand for transferring of eastern and central industries increases,which leads to the increasing demand and the lockage goods of the Three Gorges.The conflict between the capacity and transportation demand is becoming increasingly obvious,and the backlog of ships in front of the dam has become the norm.The incapability of the three gorges hub is the bottleneck of the development of the Yangtze River Golden Waterway,and the urge to relieve the pre-dam blockage by enhancing the passing-through capacity is absolutely necessary.Pre-dam transfer is a measure to alleviate the backlog of ships in the Three Gorges project,and the port is an essential component of the transport measures,which plays a supporting role.At present,the research on the shunt capacity of the Three Gorges dam have not yet involved this.Because the port diversion work is a complex dynamic and stochastic service,resulting in great difficulties in the calculation of the shunt capacity of the port.There may be a gap between the theoretical model and the actual reality,but the computer simulation technology development provides us a computational means.In this paper,aiming at the features of the operations of the pre-dam transmission of the Three Gorges dam,I proposed the calculation formula of the port shunt capacity,trying the theoretical models combined with the technology of computer simulation to analyze and calculate of the shunt capacity of the pre-dam transshipment port of the Three Gorges dam.In the paper I first analyze the current cargo backlog situation of the Three Gorges project and transshipment port before the Three Gorges dam.Secondly,using the method of combination forecast,to predict of the Three Gorges Dam transshipment port throughput.Thirdly,with the concept of combination of port capacity and the features of the Three Gorges Project backlog of ship transport,introduce the concept of diversion ability and put forward the calculation theory model of the transporting port shunt capacity of the Three Gorges dam.Afterwards,based on the theoretical model,use the discrete simulation theory and the Rockwell Arena software to simulate the modeling.According to the statistics predicted on the port throughput,we can calculate the Three Gorges Dam shunt capacity of port transport in 2015,2020 and 2030.Lastly,summarize the problems in the shunt capacity of the Three Gorges Dam,and put forward suggestions on the development of the pre-dam transportation hub of the Three Gorges dam.