Analysis Of Baoding Power Load And Development Strategy Of Distribution Network In Beijing-tianjin-hebei Cooperation

Based on the background of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperation,Baoding’s overall economic and urban development has diversified its development trend.This has increased the overall power supply pressure.Therefore,pay attention to the Baoding area’s power load analysis remains fundamental for the power sectors to formulate the development strategy of distribution network.In the process of analyzing the load forecast of Baoding and the development strategy of distribution network,the distribution network planning theory and the power load forecasting technology are the basis of this research.The process and content of the research are as follows:First,on the basis of the statistical analysis of the daily,monthly and annual power grid load data of the Baoding area for nearly five years,the paper adopts the methods of literature investigation and expert consultation,through collecting and collation of relevant research at home and abroad,combining the research needs of the model of power grid load forecasting and the availability of information and information.In order to obtain seven factors,including seven factors such as GDP,population,industrial structure,investment in fixed assets,per capita disposable income,financial income,consumption price level,and so on,the correlation between the seven factors and the electricity consumption of Baoding is obtained by grey correlation analysis,and Baoding city is selected.The grey relational degree between the total electricity consumption of the whole society is more than 0.75 of the five factors,namely,the consumption price level,the industrial structure,the population number,the per capita disposable income and the Gross Regional Product.Secondly,on the basis of the determination of the influencing factors,the BP neural network is selected to predict the whole social electricity consumption in Baoding,and the improved particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm is used to optimize the BP neural network for the BP neural network which is easy to fall into the local optimal and random selection weights and thresholds that lead to the convergence speed of the network and the limitation of the model accuracy.The initial parameters of the network can further improve the prediction accuracy of the network and predict the total electricity consumption of Baoding in the past 2017-2020 years.Finally,based on the power load forecasting results of Baoding and the status of the distribution network in Baoding,this paper discusses the construction of economic,service and coordinated distribution network from the perspective of economy,technology,cost,efficiency,policy and user satisfaction.This paper combines the power network load forecasting with the distribution network planning to carry out a special study,which can enrich the application of power load forecasting and distribution network planning theory in the production practice,ensure the safe and reliable operation of the regional power grid,improve the scientificity of the investment decision of the power grid enterprises,and launch the distribution network rules for the Power Grid Corp in Baoding area.In order to improve the scientificalness and rationality of decision making,it can avoid the occurrence of blind investment and investment vacancy in the distribution network construction in the new development background of Baoding.