Research On The Power Supply Structure Optimization Considering The Resource And Environmental Externalities Of Coal-fired Power

As the indispensable element in the current social development,electricity plays a crucial role in the healthy and orderly operation of the national economy.Fossil fuels are the main source of power generation in China,which support the normal development of the entire national economy.As the main fossil energy in China,coal accounts for 66%of China's total primary energy consumption,and the installed capacity of coal-fired generating units accounts for 67%of the installed capacity of China's all generating units in 2015.However,the exploitation and utilization of coal have strong externalities.According to the current structure of energy consumption in China,the externalities of coal utilization will be more and more serious,causing great impediments to the sustainable development of economy and society.It is generally believed that the exploitation and utilization of coal resources have strong external characteristics,highlighted as the environmental externality and the resource externality.Environmental externality refers to the harm to environment caused by coal mining and utilization,including pollutant discharge and vegetation destruction.Resource externality means the cost of resource depletion due to the non-renewable nature of resource,which is manifested in the inter-generational fairness on resource utilization.With the increasing pressures of the environment and resources,in order to further promote energy conservation strategies,it is needed to focus on optimizing the current energy consumption structure,especially the generation expansion planning and optimization.However,compared to renewable energy power generation,coal-fired power plants use coal as the main raw material,existing significant resource and environmental externalities.The previous studies on power supply structure optimization are less concerned with this aspect,which makes the optimization results difficult to reflect the reasonable power supply structure of China under the current resource and environmental conditions.Therefore,based on the previous research findings,this paper quantitatively calculated the environmental and resource externalities of coal-fired power generation and makes them part of the coal-fired power generation costs.Then,considering the cost characteristics of other types of generating units as well as economic,social,resource and environmental factors,the power supply structure optimization model involving the resource and the environmental externalities of coal-fired power is constructed and applied to calculate the reasonable proportion of the various types of generating units,where the minimization of social costs per unit power generation is objective function,and the electricity demand,system reliability,pollutant discharge,energy saving and emission reduction performance are restrictions.To highlight the influence of externalities of coal-fired power on the power supply structure level,this paper obtained China's reasonable power supply structure level in 2016,using the constructed model and the relevant data in 2015 and 2016.After that,the external costs of coal-fired power was removed from the model and the same data was used again to gain China's power supply structure level without considering the externalities of coal-fired power.Finally,by comparing the above two results with China's actual level of power supply structure in 2016,the rationality of China's current power supply structure level and the influence of coal-fired power externalities on power supply structure level are analyzed.The calculation results of coal-fired power externalities show that the resource external costs of coal-fired power in China are affected by the discount rate and the type of generating units,which are generally distributed between 0.0018 and 0.0085 yuan/kWh.The environmental external costs of coal-fired power are affected by the type of generating units and are generally distributed between 0.0176 and 0.0241 yuan/kWh.The results of power supply structure optimization show that the actual installed capacities of 300MW and 600MW coal-fired units in China are more than reasonable levels,and those of 1000MW coal-fired units,hydropower units and nuclear power units are less than reasonable levels.Besides,after taking the externalities of coal-fired power into account,the reasonable installed capacities of 300MW and 600MW coal-fired units will further decline,while those of 1000MW coal-fired units,wind turbines,photovoltaic generating units and nuclear power units will increase.Therefore,in current situation where coal-fired power units dominate,it is necessary to further optimize the proportion of installed capacities inside the coal-fired units,firmly develop nuclear power,vigorously develop hydropower,and reasonably plan the installed capacities of wind,light and other new energy generating units.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper quantitatively calculated the resource depletion costs of coal utilization applying user cost method considering China's actual conditions,and then calculated the resource external costs per unit power generation of different types of coal-fired power generating units in China;(2)Based on the relevant data of coal-fired power plants in China,this paper combined the two kinds of direct market methods,named the preventive expenditure method and the restoration cost method,so as to quantitatively calculate the environmental external costs per unit power generation of different types of coal-fired power generating units in China;(3)This paper constructed the power supply structure optimization model meeting China's actual situations and solved the model adopting the particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm,which determined the reasonable power supply structure under the current resource and environmental conditions in China and analyzed the impact of externalities of coal-fired power on the power supply structure level.