Research On Investment Timing Optimization Of Distribution Network Construction Project Based On Dynamic Programming Method

Power grid is the important base of national economy and society development.Its features include big investment scale,long construction period,high requirement on safety and energy safety,close relationship with national interest and people’s livelihood.With the rapid development of national economy and city construction,the increase of China’s electricity demand has caused the wave of power grid investment.Meanwhile,China is in a critical stage of power structure change and conservation-oriented society building.The development of new electric power system reform raises higher requirements on the intensification and lean management of grid enterprises.Therefore,the most urgent and important tasks for grid enterprises are to balance the relationship between investment and profit,reinforce the management and constraint of grid investment activities,measure grid investment income accurately and optimize the method of investment analysis and decision.In the traditional analysis of grid investment efficiency,the key factors of grid investment decision-making are the cash flow analysis of the enterprise,safety and reliability of grid.But with the popularization of green-thinking in China,the social environment income of grid investment has raised people’s attention.Meanwhile,grid investment is a continual activity,it cannot exactly reflects the efficiency of grid enterprise decision management in a period from only one time point,which results in the mismatch of investment behavior and enterprise long-term development strategy.Therefore,multi-stage dynamic analysis is more for investment decision in medium and long term.The study of investment time sequence is an important part of investment decision-making.But in the parst investment analysis,grid enterprises rarely consider the change of investment income during different investment periods,which results in the waste of investment.On the base of grid investment decision-model analysis,the article examines the influence of new electric power system reform on grid investment.Three indicators are designed to evaluate the investment efficiency of distribution network project from economic income,reliability income and social environment income aspects.A value function based on prospect theory is raised to measure the investment income of distribution network construction projects.Based on dynamic planning principle,the article put forwards a multi-stage dynamic decision model driven by investment effectiveness,which provides a method to measure investment income during different investment stages.With the purpose of maximizing the income prospect value by the end of the entire investment,writer looks at the optimized investment time sequence in distribution network construction.Finally,the article takes part of a 13 th Five-Year Plan distribution network project as a sample to measure the best investment time sequence.