Study On Prediction Model For Road Accidents Of High Ratio Of Bridges And Tunnels In Complicated Mountainous Area

Xiangxi area due to terrain,geological conditions are extremely complex,bridge and tunnel are higher,and the majority of curved bridge.Such as Yongji high-speed 84 km long,106 bridges across the bridge,tunnel 13,bridge and tunnel than the highest in Hunan Province.Longyong high-speed main line length of 91.086 kilometers,across the bridge and bridge up to 58.7%,a total of 19 tunnels,70 bridges.In order to forecast the frequent traffic accidents caused by the high ratio of curve bridges and tunnels,the low level of road and bridge technology,the lack of traffic safety facilities,and so on,the S306 stone embankment to Yongshun section is the engineering background,which draws lessons from the American IHSDM Interactive road design model,combined with the Xiangxi mountain road and traffic characteristics,the establishment of suitable for Xiangxi area accident prediction model,to achieve the Xiangxi mountain traffic safety maximization has great social and economic significance.The main research contents are as follows:(1)First of all,based on the townships on both sides of the mountainous areas of Xiangxi,the characteristics of townships with higher density,sharp bends and bends,and the vertical and horizontal indexes of roads.Based on the knowledge of statistics and the characteristics of road and traffic in the mountainous area of Xiangxi,this paper analyzes the influence of the basic design parameters such as the radius of the flat curve,the longitudinal slope and other elements and the bridge,the fence and the bridgehead jumping and the roadside risk on the accident rate,To determine the optimal state,the establishment of the basic model of accident prediction.(2)The establishment of Xiangxi mountain road accident prediction of the basic model of the elements of the correction factor regression function,including the flat curve radius,straight line length,flat curve deviation,slope slope,vertical curve radius,bridge and tunnel,roadside risk and other accidents Correction factor.The correction of the plane line and the collision guard of the bridge are summarized in the flat curve accident correction factor and the roadside risk correction factor.The correction factor of the bridge section is mainly to reflect the bump at bridge head.(3)Finally,the forecast model is used to predict the road segment and compare with the actual accident rate to test the accuracy of the model.