Research On Inexact Municipal Energy System Planning And Management Under Environmenetal Constraints

The rapid social and economic development and the increasing living standards of people have led to the dramatic growth of energy consumption.The contradictions concerning limited energy supply and increasing demand are also getting more serious,such as energy supply imbalance,excessive dependence on fossil fuels,high external energy dependency,impending pollution reduction target,etc.Urban energy system is a complex network system affected by many factors such as technology,economy,and policy.In such a complicated system,subsystems and different links of the system are interacted with each other,which led to the existence of many uncertainties within the system.At the same time,there are a lot of complicated factors in energy system,such as the dynamic changes of the energy demand,energy structure adjustment and the uncertainty of future energy policy,all brought great challenge to the energy management system.These uncertainties have a potential impact on energy structures,energy supply,and decision making in terms of energy planning and environmental conservation,which also exacerbates the instability of the power system.To tackle the problems mentioned above,this paper combines the advantages various optimization methods.The municipal-scale energy model and power supply model are constructed,and are applied to Shenzhen to verify its effectiveness in practical research.In chapter 3,Fuzzy interval possibilistic programming model is developed which integrates fuzzy programming,interval programming,mixed-integer programming.The necessity measure is introduced into the modeling framework;uncertainties in the objective function and constraint are reflected and tackled.Through solving the model,a series of system optimization schemes can be obtained,and a comparative analysis of energy adjustment scheme under two different emission scenarios is conducted.Those results can provide decision support for Shenzhen's energy supply,processing and transformation,capacity expansion in a medium term.It also can reveal the interactive relationships among system cost,risk violation and environmental impactsThe Fuzzy Interval Robust optimization municipal electricity model(FIRP-)has been established in chapter 4.The support vector regression technique is introduced to simulate electricity demand.It is then applied to the practical research of Shenzhen.The method can not only present a balance between the conflict of system cost and target satisfaction and constraints,but deal with different challenges in the electricity supply-demand of power system,environmental emissions and other as well,through the analysis of the system penalties under different robustness,the obtained results can help relevant decision makers choose the more reasonable power allocation scheme.