Research On The Economic Analysis And Incentive Policy Of Prefabricated Concrete Buildings

The rapid development of prefabricated construction shows the direction of building technology in the future.To further develop prefabricated concrete building is a necessary requirement of the development of green,circular and low-carbon economy.Although fabricated building has huge superiority,it is still hard to carry the work a step forward.One of the biggest stumbling blocks to develop assembly building is the high cost of prefabricated concrete buildings and cost variance between systems of construction.In addition,there are disputes among academia and contractor about incremental cost,influences,performance evaluation and so on.Therefore,technical-economical analysis on prefabricated concrete building and policy-driven solutions on how to resolve the incremental cost are particularly crucial.Base on the literature and survey data of the relevant enterprises,the paper takes the assembled monolithic precast concrete testing-building in Xiamen as an example to compare the fabricated building and cast-in-place concrete building in construction cost by adopting literature research method,field research method and case analysis.According to the data of project cases,quantitative estimation model of cost increase is set up by the way of back-propagation artificial neural network.Meanwhile,evolutionary game theory is used to analyze strategies that governments should make to promote development of prefabrication.The contents are as follows:Firstly,this paper tries to dissect construction,quota system and cost in comparison between prefabrication with site operation.In the view of the difference of sub-engineering item and measurement item between prefabricated construction and the cast in place,the factors that affect cost are quantitative analyzed.Secondly,cost of panel system,retaining structures,stairs and loaded members are studied starting from precast components.Thirdly,the combination scheme of precast component is chose from the viewpoint of assembly rate and cost by the theoretical calculation and detailed analysis.On the basis of data of project cases,quantitative estimation model of cost increase is set up by the way of back-propagation artificial neural network.Then the fitting relationships between the assembly rate and cost increase are established,which will provide strong support for the development of prefabricated building.Lastly,using the dynamics model of evolutionary game theory,the interactive mechanism among the local government,enterprises and consumers is proposed.From the government perspective,this paper put forward incentive policy to vigorously promote prefabricated construction.Research shows that:(1)The cost of civil works accounts for an important part of total construction cost,especially the cost of prefabricated concrete engineering is the main driver of high cost.Additionally,the cost of scaffold,concrete structure mould and support,temporary engineering project and secondary transportation fee for prefabricated construction are lower than that for cast-in-place construction.(2)The low cost growth of laminated floor slabs,the partition wall,stairs and beams make it suitable to promote and develop nationwide.(3)It comes to the conclusion that the order of preference is stairs>slabs,others>pre-cast wall panel,loaded members and the economic assembly rate range from 40%to 50%.