Study On The Spatiotemporal Correlation Between Air Pollution And Deaths Of Respiratory Diseases In Mianyang

With the prosperity and development of the national economy and the intensification of human activities,the dust and harmful gases emitted into the air are increasing,which leading to more and more serious air pollution and seriously affecting the health of residents.The human respiratory system is an organ that is in direct contact with the outside air.Air pollution factors can directly enter the respiratory tract and then enter the lung tissue deep in the respiratory system to induce diseases related to the respiratory system and lungs.Therefore,the problem of air pollution has caused widespread concern.At present,domestic and foreign research on air pollution and respiratory diseases mainly focuses on the source of air pollution elements,pollution characteristics and the impact of chemical composition on human health,and there is little research on air pollution elements from the spatial distribution characteristics in combination with spatial location and other information Relationship with respiratory disease cases.Therefore,this article chooses a multidisciplinary approach to analyze the relationship between air pollution factor sets and respiratory diseases from the traditional time series analysis method and spatial analysis.At the same time,in view of the difficult situation of obtaining information on air pollution elements,the traditional method of obtaining pollutant distribution and concentration information by air quality monitoring stations was abandoned,and satellite remote sensing monitoring methods were selected to obtain the air pollution status in the study area,which greatly improves the convenience of obtaining air pollution data.In this paper,Mianyang,Sichuan Province was selected as the research area to collect daily remote sensing image data,atmospheric pollutant concentration data（PM2.5、PM10、SO₂、NO₂、CO and O₃）,temperature（highest daily temperature,lowest temperature）,and daily respiratory disease death cases of residents in the study area from 2008 to 2016.Using statistical analysis and spatial density analysis to study the basic characteristics of death cases of respiratory diseases in Mianyang from 2008to 2016;using spatial distribution and spatial aggregation analysis methods to comparatively analyze the concentration distribution of air pollution factors and the spatial distribution characteristics of death cases of respiratory diseases;based on the time series analysis method to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between the content of air pollution elements and death cases of respiratory system.The results achieved in this article are as follows:（1）From 2009 to 2016,the number of deaths from respiratory diseases in Mianyang basically increased year by year;the ratio of the number of deaths of male respiratory cases to the number of deaths of female respiratory systems was about 1.3:1;there are more deaths from respiratory diseases in the first quarter and the fourth quarter of each year,and fewer deaths from respiratory diseases in the second and third quarters,showing a seasonal effect;deaths are basically concentrated in Fucheng,Youxian,Jiangyou,Santai and Zitong.（2）Analysis of the spatial distribution of individual pollutant concentrations and the spatial distribution and concentration of deaths from respiratory systems revealed that:In the same year,the number of death cases in various districts and counties of Mianyang was positively correlated with the average concentration of air pollution factors,that is,the higher the concentration of pollution elements,the more deaths;there was no obvious correlation between the death cases of respiratory diseases and the spatial distribution of PM2.5,CO and SO₂ concentrations in the study area.The spatial distribution of PM10,NO₂ and O₃ concentrations was basically consistent with the spatial distribution of death cases of respiratory diseases.（3）The time series generalized additive model of single pollution content and death cases of respiratory system diseases are analyzed separately and obtained:The impact of the increase in the average daily concentration of 6 pollutants on the deaths of respiratory diseases in the study area has different statistical significance.PM2.5and PM10 are only statistically significant lagging 1 day to 2 days,CO and O₃have a statistically significant lag of 0 days to 1 day,NO₂ has a statistically significant lag of0 days to 2 days,SO₂ lags from 0 to 3 days with statistical significance.In terms of the cumulative effect of individual pollutants on death cases of respiratory diseases,PM2.5,PM10,CO,NO₂ all have the greatest impact on respiratory death cases when the cumulative lag is 1 day.When the single pollutant increases by 10μg/m³,the number of deaths from respiratory diseases increases by approximately 0.41%（95%CI:0.37%,0.44%）、0.49%（95%CI:0.45%,0.51%）、0.84%（95%CI:0.28%,0.41%）and 0.47%（95%CI:0.23%,0.73%）;O₃ has the greatest impact on respiratory deaths on the day and SO₂lags 2 days later.For every 10μg/m³ increase in pollutants,the number of respiratory deaths increases by approximately 0.94%（95%CI:0.46%,1.34%）,0.63%（95%CI:0.53%,1.05%）.（4）The time series generalized additive model of multiple pollution content and death cases of respiratory system diseases were analyzed separately and obtained:In the multi-pollutant model,for every 10μg/m³ increase in PM2.5,deaths from respiratory diseases increased by 0.83%（95%CI:0.73%,0.94%）,but compared with the impact effect in the single pollutant model,the statistical significance of the multiple pollutant model is significantly reduced.The influence of other pollutants on the death data of respiratory diseases was not statistically significant（P>0.05）.