| Since the second half of 2012,the price of coal in China has dropped sharply,the supply and demand of coal are seriously mismatched,and the domestic environment is seriously broken,the restriction of environmental indicators is becoming more and more severe,the cost of enterprises has greatly increased,leading to serious impact on large and small coal enterprises,and the number of losses of enterprises has increased in a straight line.The problem of overcapacity in the coal industry is increasingly prominent and needs to be solved.For this reason,in recent years,the State Council,the national development and Reform Commission and other relevant ministries and commissions have successively issued corresponding capacity reduction policies.However,to solve the problem of overcapacity in the coal industry involves multiple stakeholders and the causes are very complex,which makes the capacity "cannot be eliminated repeatedly",and the tense situation of domestic coal supply and demand cannot be changed.On December 30,2016,the National Energy Administration issued the 13 th five-year plan for coal industry development.Among them,the main problems faced by the coal industry in China,the current development situation,the main objectives of the construction,the cross regional balance of production and development,the strict control of coal production capacity,and the coal production environment and safety issues are described in detail and strictly regulated.Since then,how to solve the problem of coal overcapacity and realize the sustainable development of the coal industry has become the focus of academic and political attention.Coal de-capacity is an important part of China's deepening supply side structural reform.To formulate a scientific target allocation plan for deproduction is the key to achieve the smooth exit of excess capacity.Based on the complex dynamics of the current industry management system and capacity management system game process in China,and fully considering the heterogeneity of interest demands of the central government and local government,a new target allocation model of capacity removal between provinces and regions based on two-tier multi-objective nonlinear programming is constructed.Based on the relevant data of 25 coal-producing provinces in China,a coal production capacity allocation scheme with efficiency,environmental protection,cost and equity under the economic quality preference of the central government is obtained.The two-level optimal allocation scheme(BOAS)is compared with the single-level optimal allocation scheme(SOAS)and the government allocation scheme(GAS)in the existing literature.In addition,the paper also investigates the changing law of target value and distribution scheme under different preference situations of the central government.Finally,based on the analysis results of the two-level optimal distribution scheme,from different stakeholders,respectively,from the national level and industry level,put forward countermeasures and suggestions on the governance of coal overcapacity.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Some local governments have a low degree of willingness to implement the central government's policy of overcapacity reduction,while some local governments have a high degree of enthusiasm for the policy,which exceeds the central government's expectation.The heterogeneity is consistent with the actual situation of China's overcapacity reduction.HLJ,AH,HUN,SC and NX with the lowest policy implementation rates were 76.15%,78.25%,77.71%,75.98% and 73.76%,respectively.In these provinces,the cost of capacity reduction is high or economic development is relatively backward,so they are passive in capacity reduction due to the huge fifinancial pressure.FJ,IM,GZ,GS and QH with high policy implementation rates were 122.82%,182.20%,142.99%,128.52% and 165.40%,respectively.These provinces are rich in coal resources and positive about implementing de-capacity tasks,playing an important role in successfully solving the problem of overcapacity in the Chinese coal industry.(2)Compared with the GAS and the SOAS,the BOAS has lower total cost of coal overcapacity reduction,larger growth of TFP,better environmental benefifits in the mining area,and more fairness,which can better balance effificiency,cost,environment,and fairness.To be specifific,the total cost of the BOAS is 64 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan lower than that of the GAS and the SOAS,respectively.At the same time,the TFP growth of the BOAS is 2.14% and 0.60% higher than that of the GAS and the SOAS,respectively.The environmental benefifit of the BOAS is 73 billion yuan higher than that of the GAS and 71 billion yuan higher than that of the SOAS.In addition,although the Gini coeffificients calculated by different indicators are different,the Gini coeffificient of the BOAS is less than 0.3,which belongs to the absolute or relative fairness category.(3)Although there are some differences in quota allocation schemes of coal overcapacity reduction under different situations,the trend of change is consistent with the actual situation,indicating that the model has good internal consistency and can be a valid reference for the government to formulate policies under different situations.Specififically,under the environment-oriented situation,provinces with larger growth rate of environmental benefifit of capacity reduction and lower unit capacity withdrawal cost,allocated more capacity,while provinces with smaller growth rate of environmental benefifit and higher unit capacity withdrawal cost,allocated less capacity.Under the quality-oriented situation,provinces with larger growth rate of TFP and lower unit withdrawal cost allocated more capacity reduction,while provinces with smaller growth rate of TFP and higher unit withdrawal cost allocated less capacity reduction.In brief,the proposed allocation model truly reflects the complex dynamics of the game process of China's coal overcapacity governance system,realize the balance from static target to dynamic policy,and provide a more effective decision-making tool and reference for the government to formulate the total target allocation scheme of industrial overcapacity.The thesis includes 14 figures,6 tables,99 references. |
PDF Full Text Request