A Case Study On Accumulation And Avoidance Of Corporate Debt Risk From The Perspective Of Minsky Moment

This paper takes the accumulation of corporate debt risk as the research object from the perspective of Minsky Time.Through the combing of the literature,the research on "Minsky moment" at home and abroad mainly focuses on the following aspects: financial instability and "Minsky moment" theory introduction,"Minsky moment" theory related model construction research and Research at the level of model argumentation,mostly with a macro perspective.However,the literature on the use of microscopic data in the economy for relevant case studies using the Minsky moment theory is lacking.In order to make up for the shortcomings of the past research,this paper will conduct a case study on the risk accumulation of enterprises from the micro perspective of Minsky Time.The analysis of this article is mainly composed of three parts.The first part is the analysis of theory and mechanism,mainly the introduction of financial instability and the "Minsky moment" theory,and the risk factors that promote the "Minsky moment" are mainly divided into liquidity risk,maturity mismatch risk,Commodity price fluctuation risk and policy change risk.The second part is a case study of Northeast Special Steel,which introduces excessive debt and leads to debt default.The Northeast Special Steel,from normal profit to bankruptcy restructuring,is divided into the initial stage of risk formation(stable financing stage),the accumulation of debt crisis(speculative financing stage),and the outbreak of debt crisis(Ponzi financing stage).The phase of their risk accumulation research.The third part is to supplement the full text.Based on Fisher's linear judgment analysis method,the net profit rate,current ratio,debt ratio,asset turnover rate and return on assets of the two general samples of bankrupt and non-bankrupt steel enterprises are selected.The variable estimates the threshold of the “Minsky moment” in the steel industry,and the result is used as an indicator for determining the bankruptcy risk in the steel industry.The conclusions of this paper verify that Minsky believes that finance has natural instability.When the economy is good,investors tend to take more risks.As the economy continues to move,the risk level of investors is higher.Big,until it collapses beyond the point of imbalance,the Minsky moment has to happen.Finally,this paper proposes policy recommendations to avoid Minsky's ability to hold on to systemic risks,such as establishing a sound risk warning system based on cash flow indicators.