| Based on the spatial panel data of Luzhou City in the past 21 years(1996-2016),Taking the county(district)as the research unit,the IPCC inventory estimation method and parameter estimation method are used to estimate the agricultural carbon revenue and expenditure in the city;Equity assessment of agricultural carbon emissions in the city using regional agricultural carbon emissions equity assessment methods;The decoupling elasticity analysis method was used to analyze the decoupling elasticity relationship between the city's agricultural economy and carbon emissions.The results show that:(1)The annual average agricultural carbon absorption in Luzhou is 172.95 million tons,which shows a rising trend;the annual average agricultural carbon absorption intensity is 7.85 tons per square hectare,and the carbon absorption intensity shows a trend of increasing growth.The crop carbon absorption is mainly in the spring crops(76.91%),Carbon absorption of rice is the largest among crops(55.16%).Agricultural carbon absorption is higher in the north and south and lower in the middle;carbon absorption intensity is higher in the north and lower in the south.Except for Longmatan,the carbon absorption and carbon absorption intensity showed a downward trend,and all other counties showed an upward trend.There are significant differences in the spatial pattern of carbon absorption and its intensity in the districts and counties of the city.The city's average annual agricultural carbon emissions are 136.25 million tons,and the overall trend is declining;The average annual agricultural carbon emission intensity is 6.21 tons per square hectare,and the overall trend is increasing.Agricultural carbon emissions are dominated by livestock breeding and agricultural soil emissions(49.75% and 38.04% respectively).The former's carbon emissions and proportions are decreasing,and the latter are increasing.Carbon emissions from livestock breeding are dominated by pigs(61.77%),and carbon emissions from crop soils are dominated by spring crops(86.19%).There isnot much difference in agricultural carbon emissions and intensity levels in various districts and counties.The spatial accumulation characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in various districts and counties are significant,and the spatial pattern of carbon emission intensity is significantly different.The level of carbon emission intensity in the northern Pingba hilly area is higher than that in the southern mountainous areas.(2)Ecological carrying coefficient of agricultural carbon emissions Jiangyang >Luxian > Longmatan > Hejiang > Naxi > Guxian > Xuyong,the average values are1.43,1.28,1.22,1.15,0.99,0.69,0.64.Agricultural carbon emission economic efficiency coefficient Longmatan > Jiangyang > Luxian > Hejiang > Naxi >Xuyong > Gulin,the average values are 1.4,1.36,1.35,1.07,1.06,0.65,0.64.The spatial agglomeration characteristics of agricultural carbon emission ecological carrying coefficient and economic efficiency coefficient in each district and county are remarkable.The agricultural carbon emission ecological carrying coefficient and economic efficiency coefficient are high in the north and low in the south,and the economic efficiency coefficient grade of agricultural carbon emissions in the middle is on the rise.Agricultural production in the northern small plain hilly region has the characteristics of strong agricultural ecological carrying coefficient and high economic efficiency coefficient,and to some extent,it shares agricultural carbon emissions in the southern mountainous area of the city.(3)The city's agricultural carbon emissions decoupling elasticity is mainly strong decoupling and weak decoupling(respectively 38.10% and 28.57%);The decoupling elasticity of agricultural carbon emission technology is mainly weak decoupling and strong decoupling(42.86% and 38.10% respectively);The decoupling elasticity of agricultural carbon emission structure is dominated by expansion negative decoupling and expansion connection(accounting for 47.62% and 33.33% respectively).The elasticity of agricultural carbon emission decoupling in the northern and central parts of the city is mainly strong decoupling and weak decoupling(42.86% and 30.48%respectively);In the south,multiple types of decoupling elasticity coexist,and strong negative decoupling occurs more frequently(occurrence frequency accounts for 40%of the city's total negative decoupling frequency).The decoupling elasticity of agricultural carbon emission technology in all districts and counties is mainly based on strong decoupling and weak decoupling(accounting for 37.41% and 36.05%respectively);Type of agricultural carbon emission structure decoupling elasticityJiangyang is mainly expansion connection(42.86%),Xuyong is mainly expansion negative decoupling(52.38%),and other districts and counties are mainly expansion negative decoupling and expansion connection(accounting for 43.81 respectively).(4)There are problems with the agricultural carbon revenue and expenditure in Luzhou: The increasing input of agricultural materials has led to the increase of agricultural carbon emission intensity;extensive animal husbandry has led to large agricultural carbon emissions,and the agricultural economy has a strong dependence on animal husbandry;agricultural carbon emission reduction in the southern mountainous regions is difficult.To this end,the following measures should be adopted: develop low-carbon agriculture according to local conditions,and focus on improving production methods and promoting low-carbon technologies in areas with major carbon sources and large carbon emissions.Promote the technology of saving agricultural inputs;strengthen the key management of mountainous counties and districts in the south according to local conditions;improve livestock and poultry breeding technology to promote large-scale breeding;improve farming methods and planting technologies to promote the coordinated development of agricultural ecological environment;Increase policy support and develop low-carbon ecological agriculture. |
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