Evaluation Of Urban Eco-environmental Quality Based On Prospect Theory

With rapid development of global economy,advancing urbanization,sharply increasing population and excessive exploitation of natural resources,make the ecological environment more and more terrible.Primary and secondary environmental problems emerge unceasingly.The failure to achieve comprehensive and coordinated economic and environmental development is particularly evident in some developing countries.How to solve the environmental problems brought by the rapid development of global economy? This problem is related to whether people’s evergrowing needs for better lives in highly developed material civilization can be satisfied,and whether world economy can develop sustainably.In order to comprehensively analyze the current situation and development trend of urban ecological environment,and to provide scientific and reasonable suggestions for sustainable development of cities,an index system,which contains 37 indexes in4 dimensions(economic dimension,natural dimension,social dimension and urbanrural coordination dimension),is established according to the present national conditions.This index system is used to evaluate 16 cities in Anhui province,based on the ecological theory called "social-economic-natural compound ecosystem" and the representative index system both at home and abroad.It generally reflects the current situation of urban ecological environment.The comprehensive weighting method based on entropy weight method and AHP is proposed,which can not only ensure that there are some mathematical theories for supporting,but also reflect the intentions of decision makers.Then an evaluation method called "TOPSIS based on prospect theory" is proposed to evaluate the urban ecological environment.Compared with the traditional evaluation methods of urban ecological environment,this method considers psychological characteristics and asymmetric psychology of decision makers,considering the asymmetry of decision makers to evaluate mental circumstances.Thus,it can reflect and describe the practical application process of decision makers and make the evaluation results more reasonable and closer to the actual environment.Sensitivity analysis of the evaluation result is made to analyzed their reliabilities and find out the sensitive indexes and weights.Finally,the local dimensional qualities and comprehensive qualities of 16 cities in Anhui Province are evaluated,to analyze the ecological environment situation of Anhui Province in 2017.According to the evaluation result,the overall ecological environment of Anhui province was good in 2017.Top 3 cities are Huangshan,Chizhou and Xuancheng,and bottom 3 cities are Suzhou,Fuyang and Huaibei.With the analysis of each subsystem,we can see that the top ranked cities always have well development in both environmental quality,economic sustainability and social stability,while the bottom ranked cities develop not so good.The ecological environment quality of Anhui province shows a decreasing trend from south to north as a whole.