A Study On The Substitutes Of "Urban Mines" To Strategic Native Metal Resources

With China's industrialization and urbanization process to accelerate the demand for metal resources continued to grow.As a result of long-term follow the heavy industry era of resource model(production?consumption?abandoned),the domestic primary mineral resources has been seriously inadequate,China is about to enter the era of shortage of native metal resources.These supply and demand problems of strategic primary metal resources,which are vital to national economic development and social security,are gradually evolving into national resource security issues.China must upgrade the metal resources security system,adjust the metal resources strategy.Therefore,judging of the substitutes of "Urban Mines" to native metal resources,it is the basis of the feasibility of using "Urban Mines" to safeguard the safety of metal resources,it is the strategic foundation of integrating "Urban Mines" into the metal resource security system.Because of its many excellent properties,copper metal plays an important role in the national economy and national life.According to the data,the world's proven copper reserves was 700 million tons in 2015,annual production volume of about 22 million tons,with an annual growth rate of about two percentage points.If keeping the mining rate,the lighting will be in 30 years.Therefore,copper is currently the most scarce metal resources.Based on the above reasons,in this paper,copper metal resources as a research example,according to a large number of information from the authority of the data and data from a multidimensional analysis of China's copper supply and demand situation;build the system dynamics model based on Hubbert resource to simulate the future of China's native copper resources;uses the regression analysis to combine the per capita resource consumption and S-type law of per capita GDP to predict copper consumption demand before the end of industrialization stage in our country.Moreover,based on the analysis of copper resource consumption structure and the product life distribution model,to predict the volume of waste copper recyclable,namely the potential of renewable copper supply.Combined with the supply and demand gap of native copper in the future,and the potential of "Urban Mines" renewable copper supply,comparative analysis the substitutes of "Urban Mines" to native metal resources.Based on the above research: Domestic copper mines would lost mining value in 50 years.But in the meantime,the original copper production has been far from being able to meet the rapid growth of consumer demand before the end of China's industrialization stage.China's copper Recyclable volume will enter the period of rapid growth from 2020.Predictive data validation,the regenerated metal resources produced by "Urban Mines" can effectively replace the shortage of strategic primary metal resources,reduce the dependence on foreign and improve the degree of protection of metal resources.This study suggests that China should adjust the strategy of metal resources as soon as possible,transform the strategy of metal resources mainly to the native resources into the renewable resources,integrate the "Urban Mines" into the metal resource security system,add scrap copper and other materials of recycled metal into mineral resources reserve system.Deploy the development strategy of "Urban Mines" scientifically: Overall planning and layout of "Urban Mines" bases;improve waste recycling network;construct the policy support system.