Influence And Mechanism Of Industrial Structure On The Carbon Intensity

The massive consumption of fossil fuels makes climate change featuring global warming an international environmental issue of great concern.The Chinese government has been actively involved in energy conservation and emission reduction actions.The industrial structure,as a major influencing factor of carbon emissions,has important implications for energy conservation and emission reduction.In such context,based on the carbon emission data of various provinces and specific subsectors in China from 2000 to 2015,this paper take 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government of China as examples and study the influence and mechanism of industrial structure on the carbon intensity from the double perspective of whole and segmentation,by literature analysis,theoretical analysis,empirical analysis and other analytical methods.First,this paper quantitatively analyzed the development level of China’s overall and segmented industries,the spatial and temporal differences in the carbon intensity.As a result,the overall evolution trend of industrial structure,have significantly risen between 2000 and 2015 and the carbon intensity in each province has also dramatically dropped and presented apparent spatial autocorrelation.However,the level of advancement,rationalization,and carbon intensity vary greatly from region to region in China.Second,this paper empirically analyzes the specific impact of industrial structure rationalization and advancement using Spatial Durbin Model and regional panel model.As a result,both the rationalization of industrial structure and the improvement of the level of advancement contribute to a decline in the carbon intensity.However,the improvement of the level of advancement doesn’t greatly help reduce the carbon intensity in the high carbon intensity areas,and the contrary is the case in the medium carbon intensity areas and the low carbon intensity areas.By contrast,the improvement of the level of rationalization doesn’t greatly help reduce the carbon intensity in the high carbon intensity areas and the medium carbon intensity areas,and the contrary is the case in the low carbon intensity areas.Third,the empirical results about how the overall evolution of industrial segmentation affect the carbon intensity show that compared with other industries,industrial carbon emission is the primary source of carbon emissions in each province,and has significant spatial spillover effect on the carbon intensity.Carbon emission and intensity vary greatly within the five segments of industry(energy production,mining,light industry,heavy industry,high-tech industry)and their internal sectors.The ranking from high to low is as follows: energy production,mining,light industry,heavy industry,and high-tech industry.Special attention should be given to the electric power and heat supply sectors in energy production,the metal smelting sector in heavy industry,and the coal mining and washing in the extractive industry,thanks to their highest carbon emission and intensity.To sum up,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: First,the rationalization and advanced level of industrial structure should be constantly improved;Second,the industrial carbon emission should be given to key industries;Third,ther drivers of carbon intensity should be emphasized;Fourth,the coordinated development of various regions should be promoted through overall considerations;Fifth,the industrial chain should be extended wherever possible to raise economic performance.