Research On The Causes,Pre-warning And Prevention Of Bond Default Risks

With the vigorous development of China's bond market,the bond market has become one of the important channels for corporate direct financing.However,in an environment where economic forms are becoming more complex and changeable,and credit risk is gradually emerging,bond defaults have gradually become normal.The frequent occurrence of bond defaults has seriously hindered the long-term healthy development of China's bond market,and has also caused losses to various stakeholders in the bond market,forcing all parties to strengthen bond risk awareness and improve risk identification and prevention capabilities.Scholars at home and abroad in the study of influencing factors of bond default mostly take the entire bond market as the research object,and use empirical research to study the correlation between relevant influencing factors and bond default,and less reveal through case study methods.Formation path of bond default.At the same time,in the research on the measurement of bond default risk,there are few studies on applying the risk pre-warning model to cases and comparing and evaluating the pre-warning effect of credit rating agencies.Based on this,this paper selects the first source of the non-ferrous metal processing industry's default bond listed company in China as the research object,and raises the research question: What is the cause of corporate bond default? How about pre-warning of bond default risk? How to effectively prevent bond default risk?The research ideas of this paper are: First,analyze the causes of corporate bond defaults at the macro level,industry level,and company level;then,based on the default points in the cause analysis of corporate bond defaults,use the Z-score based on the company's internal information,respectively.The model and KMV model mainly based on the company's external information are used to analyze and judge the model's risk prewarning level,and to conduct a comparative analysis with the credit rating results to further answer the question of how the credit rating risk pre-warning ability;finally,according to the above research findings,there are specific Proposed corresponding risk prevention recommendations to bond issuers,credit rating agencies and bond regulators.The following conclusions are drawn from the study: First,the default of Liyuan Precision Manufacturing 's refined bonds is mainly at the corporate level.The source of the debt crisis is radical strategic planning.Blind investment has led to excessive debt.The mismatch of debt maturity structure has further reduced asset liquidity.When the crisis of existing funds began,private loan projects with higher capital costs were selected to continue to widen the company's current debt gap.The breaking of the capital chain and the many lawsuits involved directly affect the normal production and operation activities of the company,further exacerbating the company's debt crisis,and the company's long-standing corporate governance structure problems ultimately lead to bond defaults.Macro-level impacts are mainly the effects of macroeconomics,financing environment and policies.The industry-level impact is mainly due to changes in upstream and downstream supply and demand leading to a decline in profitability and fierce competition in the industry.Second,the Z-score model and the KMV model have better risk pre-warning capabilities and are somewhat forward-looking.However,the credit rating results provided by credit rating agencies are overestimated,and at the same time they have a certain lag.Through deep analysis of the default risk of Liyuan Precision Manufacturing refined bonds,this paper forms a research framework for the causes,pre-warning and prevention of bond default risks,improves the comprehensiveness and completeness of such case study methods,and enriches the research of bond default micro perspectives.By putting forward targeted recommendations on bond defaults for various entities,with a view to enhancing the rationality of corporate operations,increasing the credibility of credit ratings,and strengthening the effectiveness of bond supervision.