Analysis Of The Fluctuation Law And Causes Of China’s Oil Products Market Based On Time Series Model

Oil is an important strategic material to safeguard the country’s economic and political security.Since the 1960 s,oil has been widely used in Western society,becoming the main driving force for modern industrial and economic development.Refined oil is one of the most used petroleum products and a major force in energy consumption.Under the great environment of China’s rapid economic and social development,the demand for refined oil consumption continues to rise,which has played an important supporting role in the development of China’s national economy.In the context of economic globalization and the deepening of the openness of the domestic market,the focus of refined oil sales companies is the marketing of refined oil products.Therefore,by analyzing the fluctuation law of demand in the refined oil market,it is of great significance to observe the stability of the refined oil market and grasp the changing rules of the market,and provide a reliable basis for formulating marketing strategies for refined oil products.This paper uses the time series model to take the Chinese refined oil consumption market as an example.Firstly,it analyzes the overall change trend of China’s refined oil consumption demand,and through the econometric method,the variation characteristics of the annual consumption fluctuation curve of China’s refined oil products from 1980 to 2017 were further analyzed and the fluctuation cycle was obtained.A monthly scale analysis of short-term refined oil consumption demand data from March 2010 to November 2018 was conducted.On this basis,a detailed analysis of the key factors causing fluctuations in China’s refined oil consumption is conducted.Finally,based on the annual fluctuation law of the refined oil market,a practical and reliable marketing strategy is formulated.