Study On Formation Mechanism And Intervention Strategy Of Pilot Unsafe Behavior

As the aircraft operator and the core member of crew,the pilot’s unsafe behavior seriously affects flight safety.With the increasing number of unsafe incidents caused by pilot unsafe behaviors,the unsafe behavior of pilots has become an important factor affecting flight operation.Therefore,exploring the formation mechanism and development law of pilot unsafe behaviors,and proposing intervention strategy that can effectively reduce pilots’ unsafe behaviors are of great significance for ensuring flight safety.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of pilot unsafe behavior,a conceptual model of pilot unsafe behavior formation mechanism is established.According to the sub-cycles in the conceptual model,flight operation,flight capability and flight safety sub-systems are divided.The pilot’s unsafe behavior formation mechanism is analyzed by using the HFACS model.Six policy adjustment variables such as the degree of coordination and coordination of two-unit crews,safety supervision and fines,and one observation variable of the unsafe behavior rate of pilots are identified.The parameters and equations of the model are determined through literature research and expert interviews,and a dynamic model of pilot unsafe behavior formation mechanism is established.The rationality and validity of the model are verified through dimensional consistency tests,structural tests,and behavioral recurrence tests.The intervention strategy of unsafe behavior of pilots is simulated by using VENSIM software,and it was predicted that the rate of unsafe behavior of pilots of airline A in 2020-2030 would increase year by year if the current policy is kept unchanged.Designed the single intervention strategy and combined intervention strategy respectively two kinds of simulation model.Based on the simulation of the single intervention strategy,the intervention effect of each policy adjustment variable was clarified,and 27 kinds of combined intervention policy scenarios are determined through expert interviews and orthogonal methods,and the best combination of intervention strategy that effectively reduced pilot unsafe behavior is selected.The results showed that,from 2020 to 2026,the coordination and collocation degree of the twoperson crew is set to 0.7,the assessment award for the cumulative safety record of the pilot is set to 0.7,the punishment force is set to 0.5,the safety supervision force is set to 0.7,and the flight style level is set to 0.5.From 2027 to 2030,keeping the intervention intensity of other policy adjustment variables unchanged,increasing the flight style level,and reducing the safety supervision intensity by 57.1% can reduce the flight rate of unsafe behavior of airline A to 0.348 in 2030.