Infrastructure Risk Management Of Industrial Parks Based On Inoperability Input-output Model

Industrial parks are created to meet the requirements of cost advantages and competitiveness for enterprise members.These members can share infrastructures and various resources and bring certain economic benefits in a stable state.However,the increasingly frequent sudden disturbances have seriously affected the interdependent infrastructure of industrial parks,and under the influence of cascading effect,it spreads in the whole park and produces amplification effect,leading to further expansion of economic losses.In this work,water infrastructure system is used as the case study.More and more industrial parks adopted water network integration approaches to meet the demand of water saving and wastewater reduction.Water network integration can support to reduce freshwater demand and wastewater discharge through the reuse and recycling between members.Unfortunately,it would deepen the degree of interdependence between members and increases the risk of economic losses caused by unexpected events.This paper explores the relationship between the interdependence degree and stability of the infrastructures and ensure that the infrastructure systems can reduce or avoid the impact of emergencies from the accidents.Taking the water network system of a specific industrial park as the case,this thesis proposes a method that combines process integration with inoperability input-output model to support risk analysis and evaluation management of infrastructure.The integrated framework consists of three parts: process integration,inoperability input-output model and risk management solution.The process integration generated optimal water network alternatives under different optimization conditions.According to the network node connection mode of the alternatives,the interdependence matrix of each alternative is constructed.The inoperability input-output model is established to investigate the inoperability,elasticity and flexibility of each alternative after the disturbance occurred.A case study was conducted in an industrial park,and the following two scenarios were studied:(1)When the water supply to the park decreased by 20% due to an emergency,the inoperability degree of each plant in all alternatives will be studied;(2)When the output of the core plant drops by more than 40%,the park will shut down.To study what extent the freshwater supply station in all alternatives drops,the park will shut down.Based on the inoperability value,elasticity coefficient and flexibility index of each alternative,the inoperability and stability of different alternatives are studied to provide methodological support for infrastructure risk management in industrial parks.