Research On Deep-sea Emergency Situation Modeling And Intelligent Analysis

As an important part of China’s emergency response system,deep-sea emergency salvage operation undertakes the mission of safeguarding national and social public interests,such as lifesaving in sea areas,ship and property rescue,maritime emergency salvage,maritime fire control or oil spill pollution and removal.However,the deep-sea emergency operation was characterized by changeable situation,excessive factors of environmental and rescue,and relatively tight emergency time,etc.It was difficult for emergency command group to make intuitive and accurate judgment of the current emergency situation in a short period of time based on historical experience.Therefore,China’s salvage agencies were in urgent need of the support of intelligent situation analysis auxiliary means when they were engaged in emergency operations.In view of the lack of quantitative means of situation risk analysis in the emergency operation site,this paper proposed a risk quantitative analysis method based on uncertain knowledge reasoning through the research in the field of maritime emergency rescue,and introduced the Bayesian Network model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method into the field of deep-sea emergency situation analysis.Firstly,this paper introduced the background knowledge of the deep-sea emergency.Through the study of emergency cases,the operational requirements of the field of deep-sea emergency were determined,besides,the situation’s index system was established.Secondly,based on the domain background knowledge,the deep-sea situation influencing factors were extracted,and the data pretreatment was carried out.Thirdly,research the construction of Bayesian Network in the field of deep-sea emergency,because of the lack of historical case data,the structure learning and parameter learning algorithms based on data analysis can not be used.Aiming at this problem,this paper adopted the DS evidence theory,realized the integration of expert knowledge,completed the construction of Bayesian Network model topology.Besides,this paper proposed a parameter automatic allocation algorithm based on fuzzy reasoning.Finally,based on the output of Bayesian Network model,the final quantitative analysis result of emergency situation was given by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.In order to provide convenience for emergency command group,based on the research results obtained,combined with the secondary development of the electronic chart system,had realized the emergency situation plotting and the display of situation analysis results.In this paper,the Bayesian Network and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory is introduced into the deep-sea in the field of emergency operation.A complete set of technical solutions is proposed for quantitative analysis of the emergency salvage operation risk,besides,a situational analysis system is developed,which has strong practical application value and provides effective technical support for deep-sea emergency operations.