Research On Safety Early Warning Of Copper Resources Supply In China

Copper is an important raw material for industrial development and an important national strategic reserve resource.At present,my country's annual consumption of refined copper exceeds 50% of the world's total.However,my country's copper mine resources are not abundant,and a large number of imports are needed to meet domestic demand,and its external dependence has exceeded 70%.The security of copper resource supply directly affects the healthy development of the copper industry and even the Chinese economy.There is an urgent need to accurately grasp the security status of the national copper resource supply,predict risks,and put forward reasonable measures,which have certain theoretical significance to the national economic development.It also has its practical significance.First,establish an early warning indicator system for China's copper resource supply security from three dimensions: domestic supply,import safety and market factors,with a total of external dependence,import concentration,import source country stability,reserve-production ratio,reserve growth potential,and production growth rate,Early warning indicators of consumption intensity,consumption growth rate and price stability.On this basis,the historical changes of various early warning indicator data are analyzed,and it is pointed out that the challenges facing copper resource supply security mainly include the excessive concentration of import sources,the hidden dangers of maritime transportation routes and the restraint of copper prices.Secondly,using the BP neural network method,constructing nine neurons according to the early warning index system to complete the prediction and early warning research,and using the trained model to predict each early warning index,the security levels in 2019 and 2020 are 0.3856 and 0.3267,respectively..At the same time,the gray prediction model is used for horizontal comparison to evaluate the reliability of the prediction results.Comparing the results obtained by the BP neural network and the gray prediction model,the absolute value of the average error of each indicator is within 10%,indicating that the prediction result of the BP neural network is credible,and the security of my country's copper resource supply in 2019-2020 is in a critical state.Finally,in view of the safety of China's copper resource supply in the next two years,in the context of China's high dependence on foreign resources,it is proposed to establish a copper resource supply safety early warning system,expand transportation routes,gradually expand resource diplomacy and overseas Suggestions such as investment intensity have a positive effect on spreading risks and preventing crises.This research is still inadequate.Future research will explore the establishment of corresponding warning limits for early warning indicators,so that the early warning indicators can be traced back according to the early warning results,greatly improving the accuracy of early warning,and at the same time improving the work of early warning research effectiveness.