The Study On The Prediction Of Crude Oil Import In China

The crude oil is the most critical energy in the world.That energy is a non-renewable resource and is also the primary key element for each country and the entire world.This study aims at forecasting the crude oil import in 10,000 tons(ICO)in China.This study will propose a forecasting model that will allow to understand and know the future demand need it.The single stage forecasting modeling includes multiple linear regression(MLR).During our analysis,we would select the independent variable that will have the highest correlation with the dependent variable.Then we should use these high correlation independent variable to generate a prediction model.The proposed analyzer model consists of the integration of different modeling components.Mean absolute percentage error,root means square error and mean absolute difference is utilized as the performance measures.Real dataset of crude oil in China from 2000 to 2014 and seven associated explanatory variables are sampled and investigated.These independent variable are the following Exports of Crude Oil in 10,000 tons(ECO),Consumption of Crude Oil in 10.000 tons(CCO),Total Production of Crude Oil(PCO),Consumer Price Index(preceding year=100)(CPI),Gross Domestic Product(100 million yuan)(GDP),Total Population(year-end)(10,000 persons)(TP)and crude oil Average Closing Price(COAP)The forecasting results reveal that the prediction modeling is able to accurately predict the demand for crude oil import in China.