Analysis Of The Influencing Factors Of EU-ETS Carbon Futures Price

Exploring the driving factors of the price of carbon emission allowance has always been one of the topics of concern in the energy economics.This paper adopts theoretical analysis and empirical research on the driving factors of carbon future prices under the EU-ETS,and comprehensively uses BP structural breakpoint testing,multiple ARIMA,and DCC.The GARCH model analyzes the changes in carbon price factors at different stages(from 2010 to 2016)and the volatility spillover effects between the carbon market and other commodity markets.The results show that the European debt crisis in 2011 and the EU carbon auction proposal in 2014 caused structural changes in the EU carbon market price sequence,which in turn led to changes in carbon price factors;energy prices,economic environment,and air temperature conditions.Factors such as these have an impact on the EU carbon futures prices,and there are differences in the impact of the different stages.Before the structural breakpoint,there was no obvious correlation between the power conversion variables and the carbon price.After the “Back-loaded” policy was announced in 2014,the first-phase delay of the power conversion variables began to have a significant impact on carbon prices;The DCC-GARCH modeling results of the factor show that,there is no obvious linkage effect between price fluctuations in energy markets and financial markets and price fluctuations in carbon markets.