Club Convergence Of China’s Agricultural Greenhouse Gases Emission

China is a major agricultural country.With the development of agriculture,agricultural GHGs emissions are increasing year by year.Agriculture has become an important source of GHGs emissions in China that cannot be ignored.As there are regional differences in agricultural development in China,the formulation of agricultural GHGs emission reduction policies should consider the heterogeneity of different regions.Club convergence analysis method can not only give policy enlightenment,but also can divide the agricultural GHGs emission intensity change trend similar group.Therefore,this paper conducts club convergence analysis of agricultural GHGs emission intensity in China,aiming to give effective emission reduction policies.Firstly,the agricultural GHGs emissions of 30 provinces in China were calculated and the emission intensity was calculated.The agricultural GHGs calculated mainly include carbon dioxide,methane and nitrous oxide.Next,the total factor energy efficiency of agricultural GHGs emission in each region is calculated based on DEA method.The results show that the agricultural GHGs emissions mainly come from the major agricultural provinces.During the study period,China’s agricultural GHGs emissions increased from 952.74Tg CO2 e to1031.53Tg CO2 e,and the non-CO₂ emissions were much higher than CO₂.China’s agricultural GHGs emission intensity decreased from 4.60 t CO2 e/10,000 yuan to 2.15 t CO2 e/10,000 yuan,which mainly benefited from the increase of China’s agricultural output value.The total factor energy efficiency has geographical differences and is related to the regional agricultural production conditions and economic development.Then this paper uses logt test to divide the clubs of the 30 provinces and calculates the convergence rate of each club by using the absoluteβconvergence model.According to logt test,2 convergence clubs are formed for carbon dioxide emission intensity.For methane emission intensity,4 convergence clubs and 2 divergent individuals are formed.For nitrous oxide emission intensity,3 convergence clubs and 5 divergent individuals were formed.The convergence rate of each club is also different.For example,carbon dioxide,the convergence rate of the club1 is 3.07%and that of the club2 is 8.96%.Since each convergence club has a steady state value of emission intensity,the division of emission reduction shares within the club should follow the principle of club convergence.That is to say,the members of the club who have a higher rate of decline in GHGs emission intensity assume a greater responsibility for emission reduction,while the members who have a lower rate of decline assume a smaller responsibility for emission reduction.After dividing the convergence club,this paper constructs 26 factors that may affect the convergence of agricultural GHGs emission intensity in China.After the influence factors are added one by one in the conditionalβconvergence model,the R-squared and the convergence rate of each club all change.According to the changes,the influencing factors which have great influence on club convergence are screened out.The results show that carbon dioxide,water resources and urbanization are the most influential factors.For methane,climate factors are relatively important.Nitrous oxide,climate factors and fertilizer application all have great influence.Finally,combined with the analysis of this paper,the policy recommendations of agricultural GHGs emission reduction for each convergence club are given.