Research On The Low-carbon Economy Development Of Shandong Province Based On System Dynamic Model

The development of low-carbon economy is an important strategic choice for global warming.China,as the largest developing country in the world,also attaches great importance to the development of low-carbon economy.Shandong Province is one of China's largest energy consumption province,whose economic development with obvious high carbon emission feature,facing enormous pressure of carbon emission reduction.So,it has become a serious challenge on how to ensure the stable growth of economy and meanwhile realize the low-carbon development.Energy supply-side reform as the main task of China's “13th Five-Year Plan”in the field of energy,it's the key to energy consumption structure adjustment in Shandong Province,as well.Therefore,searching for the best mode for the development of low-carbon economy,is of great theoretical and practical significance to study and practice the regional low-carbon economy.This paper takes Shandong Province as the research object,under the guidance of low-carbon economy and decoupling theory,through the analysis of economic development,energy consumption and carbon emission,find out the key factor which affecting the development of low-carbon economy in Shandong Province.The decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth during the“11th Five-Year Plan”and“12th Five-Year Plan”of Shandong is estimated by using Tapio Decoupling method.According to the system dynamic principle,the system dynamic model of low-carbon economy in Shandong,which includes four subsystems:economic development subsystem,energy consumption subsystem,carbon emissions subsystem and social development subsystem is built,and moreover the relationship between those subsystems is verified.Take the year of 2005 as the starting year,the system set up three different decoupling scenarios based on the validation of the model,to predict the different trends of the important quotas of the development of Shandong Province in 2017-2020,which aims to find an optimal path to realize the steady growth of economy and realize the coordinated development of economy,resources,environment and society at the same time.The model simulation results show that the adjustment of a single element does not achieve carbon reduction targets perfectly.Only by adjusting these three core elements of economic structure,energy structure and the low-carbon factor at the same time,can we achieve the low-carbon economic development of Shandong Province more efficient.In the end,it put forward pertinent suggestions on the development of low-carbon economy in Shandong Province from aspects of industry resources configuration,energy supply-side reform and low-carbon consumption,combined with the analysis results of three different scenarios.