Risk Assessment Of Water Traffic Safety And Emergency Rescue Facilities Location In Typical Reservoir Area

There are numerous natural lakes and reservoirs in the land area of China.In recent years,with the development of tourism,Taking the tourist passenger ships have become one of the main means of transportation and sightseeing.Passenger ships usually carry a large number of passengers.Once the accident happens,it cannot guarantee timely and effective professional assistance,there is a huge group of death risk,At the same time,the configuration of emergency rescue facilities in most of the reservoirs in China's reservoir areas is weak.This poses a great challenge to the safety supervision and emergency rescue work of local authorities.Therefore,the rescue of water resources in the reservoir area should be strengthened.The construction of facilities is a matter of no delay.The key to the problem is to determine the location of the emergency aid facilities.This is the main problem that this paper will address.In response to this problem,this article mainly carried out the following work:(1)Firstly,the safety risk factors of water traffic in reservoir area are identified,based on the expert opinion,the Bayesian network structure and the conditional probability table of the water traffic safety risk accident are established,then the Bayesian network of the traffic accident on the effluent is constructed,and the diagnosis inference,the joint inference and the probability of certain events are determined according to the concrete situation of the case,the paper uses the inference result to evaluate the safety risk of the water traffic in the reservoir area,and provides the basis for the risk decision.At the same time,the quantitative results deduced from Bayesian networks are used to calculate the weight coefficients of safety risk,which provide important parameters for the optimized location of the latter text.(2)On the basis of analyzing the optimal location of the water emergency rescue facility in Reservoir area,the paper introduces the safety risk weighting coefficient of emergency demand point,takes the coverage radius of the emergency relief point as the constraint condition,and establishes the improved P-median emergency rescue facility location model considering the time of rescue and security risk.The model is applied to the location of water emergency rescue facility in Liujiaxia reservoir area of Gansu province,and an immune algorithm model is adopted to consider the construction of 3 emergency rescue facilities and 4 emergency rescue facilities(i.e.P=3 and P=4),The calculated location results show that the model realizes the goal of minimizing the rescue time of the emergency relief point to the location of the accident and maximizing the safety benefit of the facility layout,and realizes the comprehensive coverage of the reservoir area and the multiple coverage of the high security risk in the location of the emergency rescue facility.The optimized location scheme provides a good guarantee for rapid emergency response in emergency.