Research On The Risk Assessment Of The Whole Life Cycle Of The Ecotourism Projects

In recent years,ecotourism guided by government has become a new direction of tourism development in China.However,ecological tourism project has a large upfront investment and operation for a long time.If not all of the project life cycle for effective identification,risk management,the project will be eliminated easily.It is very urgent to construct a set of risk assessment index system covering life cycle and establish an objective and comprehensive risk assessment model of ecotourism for the ecological tourism project.In this paper,the engineering project risk management theory and the whole life cycle theory are the foundation,the G1 method,entropy weight method and grey theory are introduced into the ecotourism project risk evaluation study.This paper has completed the following work:This paper has discussed the engineering project risk management,ecological tourism projects and fuzzy mathematical evaluation method.Based on the full life cycle theory,the ecological tourism project risk identification and analysis,this paper has built of ecological tourism project risk evaluation index system of whole life.Then,this article adopts the method of linear combination of the G1 method and the entropy weight method,effectively avoid that using only one subjective weight or objective weight would get an unreasonable calculation result,and based on the gray theory to establish the evaluation model of whole life cycle of ecological tourism project risk management.Then,based on the project of "He Shengqiao ecological tourism town",the whole life cycle of the risk assessment,evaluation results showed that the level of project risk in between a "low risk" level and "general risk" level.The qualitative analysis method(SWOT method)is used to analyze the construction risk of the project,to verify and supplement the quantitative evaluation results.Finally,based on the results of project risk analysis and evaluation to "He Shengqiao ecological tourism town" in whole life cycle,this paper puts forward some risk prevention measures.These risk prevention measures have some reference value.In this paper,ecological tourism project risk assessment research are based on combination weighting,grey theory and the whole life cycle.This paper explores the whole life cycle of ecological tourism project in every possible risk factors,constructed risk evaluation index system,based on whole life cycle;build the combination of the G1 and the weights of entropy,and then based on the gray theory to establish the evaluation model of whole life cycle of ecological tourism project risk management,and has carried on the case analysis to "He Shengqiao ecological tourism town",hope this research has certain reference value for the whole life cycle of ecological tourism project risk assessment study.