Study On The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Footprint Of Aquaculture In China

Climate change has a great impact on the global marine fish ecosystem and has attracted much attention.However,freshwater aquaculture on land is rarely involved.China is the largest freshwater aquaculture country in the world.It is important to study the impact of climate factors on aquaculture in China.In this study,we used 1974-2015 statistical data,849sample enterprises'input,output and loss data,as well as the observation data of more than800 meteorological stations in China from 1974 to 2015,and used wavelet analysis and regression analysis to screen the main climatic factors affecting freshwater fish farming in China.Quantifying the effects of temperature and precipitation on the output,loss and input cost of 25 species of freshwater aquaculture fish in China,and using Monte Carlo to simulate the water resource consumption of feed consumption in freshwater aquaculture industry.Based on the cost-benefit analysis of fish,the economic benefit model of freshwater fish farming in China was established.The results are as follows:?1?Wavelet analysis of total fish production from 1974 to 2015 shows that the maximum temperature and minimum temperature have synergistic periodic oscillations with freshwater aquaculture production in 5-10 years,10-20 years and 25-32 years,indicating that the temperature fluctuation is consistent with the fluctuation period of freshwater aquaculture fish production in China;in 2003-2015,the wavelet variance and meteorological parameters of 25species of fish yield at different scales of 1-8 years are the highest maximum.The fluctuation variance of temperature,minimum temperature,precipitation,warm days and cold days has a good linear regression relationship.The range of Adj-R² is 0.51-0.99.Among them,23species of fish are sensitive to the change of temperature,which is the dominant factor of the fluctuation of fish production.?2?The regression analysis of the yield and temperature of 25 species of freshwater aquaculture fish showed that the yield of freshwater aquaculture fish in China increased by15381 kg ha^-1 yr^-1 for each year's maximum temperature rise of 1?.The regression coefficients of 13 species of fish were positive and that of 3 species were negative,and the range of regression coefficients was-3992-6011 kg ha^-1 yr^-1.The yield of eel was most affected by temperature,and the regression coefficient of sturgeon of sturgeon fish was the smallest.The regression coefficient symbols of the effect of minimum temperature on yield per unit area are consistent with those of maximum temperature.?3?Compared with the average climate in the past 30 years,the water footprint of feed consumption of freshwater cultured fish decreased by 10236[2363,?-14433,-6685?]m³ ha^-1yr^-1 with the lowest temperature deviation increasing by 1?,and the monthly input cost of freshwater cultured fish increased by 763 yuan per hectare,of which the proportion of seedling cost was 93%.The total income of freshwater aquaculture fish will increase with the increase of temperature,and the maximum temperature deviation will make the total income of freshwater aquaculture fish loss in China.For each increase of the maximum temperature deviation value by 1?,the total income of freshwater aquaculture fish in China will lose5.30×10¹⁰[1.0×10¹⁰,(-7.0×10¹⁰,-3.7×10¹⁰)]RMB.The research results provide a new scientific perspective for aquaculture industry,and provide a guiding direction for China's freshwater aquaculture industry to cope with climate change,and play an important role in reducing water resources loss.