China's Petroleum Security Evaluation And Warning Under The Oil Price Fluctuations Background

Oil safety is the core of the national energy security strategy and an important part of the national economic and political security.In the context of the fluctuation of international oil prices,economic,China's oil security status has also changed by political and other factors.Especially in the past decade,the international oil prices experienced a surge,plummeted two historic stage,on the research of oil safety under low oil prices has not been highlighted.In such a violent fluctuations,How China's oil security changed ?Based on the oil safety data from 1995 to 2016,this paper evaluates and predicts the oil safety of China under the background of oil price fluctuation.Frist of all,this paper first analyzes the fluctuating trend of oil price and the current situation of China's oil security.The analysis shows that the international oil prices are experiencing five historical stages.At the present stage,the supply,consumption,trade,geopolitics and ecology of China's oil security show different changes in the state of international oil prices.Through the redefining of oil safety and the actual situation of economic policy at the present stage,the oil safety evaluation and early warning index system under the background of international oil price fluctuation is constructed.Identified five basic indicators of supply,consumption,trade,geopolitics and ecology and 15 specific indicators.And then do evaluation of the overall oil security situation in China from 1995 to 2016.In order to avoid the unreasonable establishment of the index evaluation system,the process of interception and subjectivity,this paper uses the DHGF and entropy method to evaluate the model.The evaluation results show that China's oil security has undergone some fluctuation in the context of oil price fluctuation.From 2000 to 2013,the state of oil safety gradually reduced to "more dangerous state".Since 2014,the oil safety state has returned to the "normal" state and Further analysis of the causes.And then make early warning of China's oil security situation in2017-2020 through Kohonen-BP model,the early warning results show that the oil safety in 2020 showed "normal" to "more dangerous" intermediate state.Finally,on the basis of the evaluation and early warning results of China's oil safety,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions form the supply,consumption,trade,geopolitics and ecology to ensure the safety of China's oil,with a view to improving China's future oil security.