Ship Collision Damage Risk Analysis Method And Its Application

Ship collision accidents cause damage to the ship structure.Severe ship collision accidents cause capsizing,economic loss,environmental pollution or loss of life.The traditional ways of ship collision research are limited to the strength of the hull structure,while ignoring the route characteristics of the ship.In order to take into account these factors,risk analysis is a key technology.This paper analyzes the risk of ship collision and integrates the ship collision probability,the scenarios of ship collision,the external dynamics of ship collision and the internal mechanics,so it considers the route characteristics of the struck ship.A method for analyzing the ship collision risk is proposed.The research contents are as follows:1.Two methods of calculating the ship collision probability are presented.Furthermore,a program is used to analyze the AIS data of a sea area for a certain period of time,and the ship traffics in this sea area are obtained,which is one of the foundations of subsequent research.AIS(Automcatic Identification System)data is generated by a device on board a ship and records real-time information of all ships within a channel,such as the ship's speed and main dimensions.2.The external dynamics and internal mechanics of ship collision are investigated,and the emphasis is put on the two-dimensional and three-dimensional analysis method of external dynamics.A analytical calculation program is used to implement the external dynamics and the internal mechanics.In addition,the important parameter in the external dynamics,the coefficient of restitution,is studied and discussed.A method for the selection of the coefficient of restitution is proposed.3.Based on the external dynamics,internal mechanics and the ship traffic data,a method of calculating the risk of ship collision damage is proposed.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis is conducted to analyze the factors that affect the uncertainty of the model.The results and conclusions obtained in this thesis is of certain reference significance for the research on the ship collision external dynamics and the risk analysis of ship collision damage.