The Carbon Abatement Cost Assessment Of The Power Generation Sector In China Under Auctioning Mode

Chinese government has been attaching great importance to carbon emission reduction.As of the end of 2017,the national installed capacity of full-caliber power generation was 1.78 billion kilowatts,an increase of 7.6%year-on-year;among them,the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation accounted for 38.7%of the total installed capacity of power generation,an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year.The newly added power generation capacity of the country was 133.72 million kilowatts,of which,the newly added non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity of 89.88 million kW,all hitting record highs.China introduced a marketing mechanism into emission mitigation in 2013 and the national carbon trading market was established in 2017,in which 1,700 enterprises in the power generation sector have participate,involving more than 30 trillion tons carbon emission.Currently,the allowances are mostly allocated free of charge in the carbon market.In the future,auctioning would be adopted and permits be purchased via emission trading,by which the generation of renewable energy are expected to be promoted due to the pass-through effect of paid allowances.By proposing neo-translog production model and bi-iteration simulation dynamic approach,value of carbon permits and abatement cost and optimized power structure of China's power generation sector in 2020 will be investigated,and by using the results,this paper will investigate how market and policies will affect renewable energy.The results show that when the auctioning rate is 2%,the inner value of carbon permits is 26.75 yuan/t(in the high-value scenery)and 25.26 yuan/t(in the low-value scenery);the power generation will take more cost when the auctioning rate is higher,and when the rate is 4%,the total cost will increase by 262.1 billion yuan;by 2020,the auctioning mode will not influence the power structure of renewable energy and the whole social power consumption a lot,and the cost advantage of coal-fired power compared with gas-fired power will screw with auctioning rate rising;policy enforcement and market will have different effect on renewable energy under different auctioning rate and total on-grid power generation.The innovation of this paper is to improve translog function and multi-objective optimization according to the characteristics of power generation industry,which is to improve the accuracy of evaluation,and to provide reference for other industries to evaluate the value of carbon permits.In addition,this paper helps wide the investigation and application area of the asset appraisal,and can provide theoretical supports for carbon abatement and its policy making.