Safety Risk Assessment Of Collision Between UAV And Civil Aircraft

The phenomenon of "black fly" of drones seriously threatens the safe operation of civil flights.It makes research on the risk assessment of collision between drones and civil aircraft a new valuable issue in aviation safety.However,there are not many studies have been done on this topic yet.This thesis aims at the risk assessment of collision between drones and civil aircraft,the main works are as follows:First,by adjusting the existed collision risk model for collision risk analysis between civil aircrafts to suit for collision risk analysis between drones and civil aircraft in a future shared airspace.The impact of civil aircraft positioning error that caused by CNS(Communication,Navigation,Surveillance),relative velocity and UAV(Unmanned Aerial Vehicle)positioning error caused by navigation are studied according to TLS(Target Level of Safety)specified by ICAO,and an evaluation model is established.Secondly,The minimum safety separation in three dimensions are simulated separately.The purpose is to ensure that the collision risks between pares of UAV and civil aircraft whose distances are further than the separations meet the TLS set by ICAO.The influences of various factors on the minimum safety interval are analyzed,and the laws of variation of the minimum safety interval between the two objectives are obtained with respect to the aircraft positioning error caused by CNS,the UAV positioning error navigation,the collision template and the relative velocity.It is reasonable that the collision risk assessment requirement between any case combination always is satisfied as long as the distance between them is greater than the safety interval for the worst case of worst pare.The minimum safety interval for the worst case combination of the UAV and the civil aircraft is calculated.The result indicate that for the longitudinal interval,the worst case combination is B747 and the UAV,and for both the lateral and vertical separation,the worst case combination is the combine of A380 and UAV.Finally,the three dimensions are combined to analyze the in time variation of the longitudinal,lateral and vertical collision risk in a certain period of time.The software interface between the minimum safety interval and the total collision risk number was created.It provides the basis for the future work of collision risk assessment between UAV and civil aircraft in the shared airspace.