| Due to the large number of condensate gas reservoirs,geographical dispersion,geological characteristics and reserves,the dynamics of production and the uneven production time,the gas production and economic benefits are also different.How to combine this gas reservoir to plan their gas production is difficult to solve with traditional methods and models.And the predecessors have little research on this issue and lack the theory and experience to draw on.Therefore,it is necessary to combine the gas source of natural gas production with the market demand,and carry out more in-depth and comprehensive research on the gas production planning of the gas reservoir group.First,the Tarim condensate gas reservoir group was selected as the research object,and the mathematical model of gas demand for natural gas in the city was established.Based on the gas consumption from 1997 to 2017 in the gas city,considering the factors such as the number of items and the smoothing coefficient,the prediction model with the smallest error is optimized,that is,the improved time series linear quadratic moving average method is predicted.The demand for natural gas predicts the demand for natural gas after several years.The gas consumption in 2020 is 124.0×10~8m~3,the gas consumption in 2030 is 129.3×10~8m~3,and the gas consumption in 2040 is 134.6×10~8m~3.The result shows an upward trend.Then establish a dynamic programming model for the development of condensate gas reservoirs.Taking the shortest distance from the condensate gas field to the gas city as the target,the ant colony algorithm is used to solve the shortest path and corresponding distance of each condensate gas field to each gas city in the condensate gas reservoir group.Taking the minimum total cost as the goal,considering the factors such as freight,distance and gas production cost,the gas production planning model of the condensate gas field group was established.The particle swarm algorithm was used to solve the condensate gas field of the condensate gas field group from 2018 to 2040.The annual production capacity of each year is compared with the mining cost before planning,saving 9.62%.Finally,according to the planned gas production,determine the reasonable gas production speed and approximate well size of each condensate gas reservoir,formulate multiple development plans,and construct a benefit development decision-making index system composed of four economic and technical indicators and improve it.The fuzzy mathematics method obtains the weights of each index and the fuzzy evaluation scores,and selects the scheme with the highest score as the optimal scheme.Through the research work in this paper,it has realized the rapid,accurate and quantitative description of the production dynamics of gas field group,solved the problem of orderly development of gas field group,found the technically advanced and feasible and economically reasonable global development plan,and pursued the great technical and economic benefit index.In the end,the condensate gas reservoir development and optimization technology of the overall system of the large system was formed,which provided reference for the development of similar condensate gas reservoirs. |
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