Analysis Of The Impact Of International Oil Price Fluctuation On The Russian Ruble Exchange Rate

On the basis of previous research results,this paper uses theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to study the impact of international oil price fluctuation on the russian ruble exchange rate.By combing the decision theory of exchange rate and introducing the transmission channel model of oil price impact on exchange rate,this paper analyzes the impact of oil price on exchange rate respectively from the way of international payment and price transmission.By collecting 204 sets of monthly data from January2000 to December 2016,this paper uses multivariate linear regression and VAR Vector auto regression model to analyze the impact of international oil price fluctuation on Russian ruble exchange rate.Meanwhile,we investigated the changes of impulse response function of international oil price fluctuation on the Russia’s ruble exchange rate before and after Russia’s capital account liberalization in 2006.In the end,the situation of other major oil producing and exporting countries is also compared and analyzed.Through the study,we find that the international oil price fluctuation has a negative impact on the US dollar to ruble exchange rate through the balance of payments channels,and this effect is even more intense after the liberalization of russian capital account.At the same time,this paper finds that the impact of the fluctuation of international oil price on the exchange rate of one country is related to the domestic industry structure and exchange rate system.