The Influence Factors Of Carbon Emissions Is Analyzed By Maxent Model

Rapid economic development has consumed a large number of energy,what lead to China's carbon emission levels remain high growth momentum.The rapid increase of carbon emissions to the social and environmental has made great influence:rising temperatures,rising sea levels,melting glaciers and permafrost,global climate change sharply,deterioration of the earth's environment.According to the IPCC,we calculated China's carbon emissions and local carbon emission levels in 30 provinces nearly ten years in 2003-2012,outside of Tibet,the Taiwan region,Hong Kong SAR,Macao SAR,Analyzes China's carbon emissions time trends,pattern of evolution and correlation between the regions in the different stages of development and different regions,to filter the key factor of China's carbon emissions and building the index system,using the maximum model to prioritize impact factor and predict high-risk area.Mainly includes the index of the building and instructions,the key factors in different stage,distribution pattern of carbon emissions,etc.The results showed that:(1)China's carbon emissions has increased year by year,remain high growth trend,the average annual growth rate of 9.7%.Year-on-year growth of carbon emissions declined in general,Year-on-year growth of carbon emissions in 2003-2007 more than 10%.The average of carbon emissions become 91.06 million in 2003 to 199.3 million in 2012,the growth rate of 118.87%,slightly less than a nationwide in the growth of carbon emissions.Carbon emissions and the average of carbon emissions present the same trends in absolutes and year-on-year growth rate.Carbon intensity of average annual growth rate reached to-8%,if keep the current decline,the carbon intensity can reduce 40%-50%by 2020.At the same time,the carbon intensity is less than the energy consumption intensity.(2)In the recent ten years,the average GDP in the top five is same with high carbon emissions levels.To deduct Tibet,the Taiwan region,Hong Kong SAR,Macao SAR,China's carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in central of China,in addition to the Inner Mongolia autonomous region in north China,and most areas of east China.High levels of emissions become 2 provinces to 11 provinces from 2003 to 2012,proportion increased by 30%.Carbon emissions of high level account for 15.5%of total carbon emissions in 2003,to rise to 62.3%by 2012.Distribution of carbon emissions in 2003 is bigger difference from 2008 and 2012.(3)Global Moran's I index greater than zero,2003,2007,2012,the averages Moran's I index of three years is 0.253)E(I)=0,Carbon emission levels exist strong spatial correlation between the provinces.From the temporal evolution characteristics,the total number of clusters on the number of declining;Look from the aggregate type,from the initial high-high correlation,low-low correlation,high-low correlation,low-high correlation of four types to high-high correlation,low-low correlation in 2012.(4)2007 forecast model of the probability is 1.82 times as much as random distribution by Maxent model,the key factors affecting carbon emissions in 2007 is characteristics of regional and output index.Characteristics of regional,production scale,the total effect rate of 85.9%in 2007,characteristics of regional,production scale,population scale,the total effect rate of 86.1%in 2009,production scale,urbanization rate,population scale,characteristics of regional four indicators affect the rate of 89.6%in 2012.Comprehensive conclusion,production scale,characteristics of regional,population scale is the key factors influencing the carbon emissions in recent years.Use 2010 China actual carbon emissions level distribution and prediction of carbon emissions in 2009 figure,MaxEnt is a good prediction model.The model can predict carbon risk area in future.