Study On The Financial Pre-warning To Chemical Listed Companies In China

As a typical traditional industry,the chemical industry is very important in the national economy.It is closely related to people’s lives,and affecting all aspects of people’s lives.With the rapid development of economy,the business environment of the chemical industry is increasingly complex;it has brought a huge challenge to the chemical enterprises’ normal production and operation.The chemical industry is an industry which has a fast speed of development and technology innovation,but it is also an industry which has high energy consumption,produces much waste and pollution.Two means of macro-control and industrial policy are usually used by our country to regulate this industry;they make the production and management of chemical industry listed companies appear more uncertainty.Therefore,the chemical industry needs to establish an effective financial crisis pre-warning mechanism which can monitor chemical industry listed companies’ financial situation,timely discover potential financial risk before the financial crisis occur.Then the managers of the companies can take effective measures to cope with potential risks,thus improve the companies’ ability to hedge risks,and promote the companies,sustainable operation and development.At the same time,the chemical industry listed company’s investors,creditors,affiliates and external supervision departments also can take advantage of this financial crisis pre-warning mechanism to evaluate the financial risk of chemical industry companies,and help them to assess the operating situation of chemical industry listed companies.Firstly,the thesis reviewed the foreign and domestic research related to financial pre-warning,introduced the evolution process of financial pre-warning’s study from two aspects the financial pre-warning indicator research and the financial pre-warning model research,concluded which were useful to this thesis among these financial pre-warning indicators and models.Then,on the basis of analysis the characteristics and the reasons for the occurrence of financial risk of chemical industry,I chose the appropriate financial indicators and non-financial indicators to build financial pre-warning index system.The most effective primary factors were screened to build the financial pre-warning model through three methods of significant test,principal component analysis and factor analysis.Logistic regression and the primary factors were used to build a pre-warning model of pure financial indicators and a pre-warning model joining non-financial indicators,and then tested two models’ goodness of fit and warning effect.Finally,after comparing the test results of two models,I came to the conclusion and limitations of the research,and put forward some suggestions against the chemical industry listed companies’ financial crisis.The results of research show that the pre-warning model of pure financial indicators has good warning effect,and the pre-warning model joining non-financial indicators has better warning effect than it,especially for the warning effect of the chemical industry listed companies which have been specially treated.Among them,only the growth ability indicators in the pre-warning model of pure financial indicators have great effect to predict the probability of chemical industry listed companies’ financial crisis.The solvency indicators,growth ability indicators and corporate governance structure indicators in the pre-warning model joining non-financial indicators all have great effect to predict the probability of chemical industry listed companies’ financial crisis.The innovation of this paper is combining qualitative indicators and quantitative indicators to build financial pre-warning model.Because quantitative indicators are easily affected by subjective factors,after adding qualitative indicators is helpful to reveal the real operating conditions of chemical industry listed companies,and makes the financial pre-warning index system more comprehensive.In addition,this paper also constructs the financial pre-warning model from two angles,pure financial indicators and joining non-financial indicators.After the comparison of two models,it can be known that joining non-financial indicators has effect on warning result.