Research On Prediction Method Of Input And Output Parameters Of Offshore Oil Resources Development

The foreign-trade dependence of our country’s oil increased year by year,which is over 65% by 2016.However,the onshore oil production growth is weak,reached the bottleneck,offshore oil will become the key point of the oil development in future.For the past fewer years,the rapid increase of our country’s offshore oil investment and drilling amount also reflect this point.In this context,to make the scientific and quick economic evaluation on the offshore oil development project will be significant.In this article,firstly,we will carry on a study on the procedure and characteristics of offshore oil development,analyzing its influence on input-output parameter estimation.The influence mainly reflects in structure and regularity.The influence on structure mainly reflects in the construction facilities investment,operating costs,therefore,this article makes a detailed analysis on the constitution of construction facilities investment,operating costs.On that basis,we establish a detail estimation method of the construction facilities investment,operating costs.The influence on regularity mainly reflects in the drilling cost and output.Therefore,in this article,according to the water depth,well depth,drilling cycle and the well-type data in a certain area,using the BPNN to estimate the drilling cost,the average estimation error is 7.3%;according to different project characteristics,this article adopts the Long-run Equilibrium Model and Gaussian Model to forecast and verify the output of offshore oil development projects.The verification shows that these two models both have a preferable results.Then,according to these estimation methods of input-output parameter,this article established the Discounted Cash Flow Evaluation Model,which has the characteristic of offshore oil development,and using offshore oil development project A to calculate is economic evaluation,verified the feasibility of this method.At last,this context summarized and discussed the advantages and disadvantages of BPNN,Long-run Model and Gaussian Model,and made the prospect of future research direction.