Research On The Formation Mechanism And Policy Regulation Of Coal Overcapacity Based On Supply-side Perspective

Since the "12th Five-Year" period,the phenomenon of irrational long-term structure in China's economic development has become increasingly prominent.At the 11 th Meeting of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs,the great conception of "supply-side structural reform" was put forward.At the 12 th Meeting of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs on January 26,2016,the supply-side structural reform plan was studied,and It entered the implementation phase.The proportion of coal in China's energy structure is relatively large,which is the basis of China's economic development.However,the overcapacity in the coal industry not only seriously hampered the development of our economy,but also became a "stumbling block" of economic development.It also caused a lot of waste of resources and serious environmental pollution,which caused great concern of the government.The government has put forward the goal of coal production.Therefore,it is necessary to study the mechanism and the strategy regulation of overcapacity in the coal industry,which is of great theoretical and practical significance.Firstly,by reviewing the literature review and the actual situation,we compare the excess capacity of China with the US,Japan and China at different stages.Combined with China's national conditions,this paper systematically analyzes the current situation of overcapacity in coal industry from many aspects,such as productivity utilization,sales profit rate,asset liability rate and coal price,and summarizes the characteristics of China's coal overcapacity,laying the groundwork for further research.Secondly,in order to further study the formation mechanism of overcapacity in the coal industry,this paper expounds the intervention of local government investment in the coal industry from three aspects: the motivation or pressure of intervention,the opportunity or means of intervention,the attitude or pretext of intervention,and sets up a mechanism map of the formation of coal industry overcapacity.At the same time,we build a game model to prove that the excessive intervention of local governments is the fundamental reason for overcapacity of coal.Finally,based on the analysis of the current situation and formation mechanism of coal overcapacity in China,a system dynamics model with coal capacity as the core is constructed.The situation analysis method is used to set up three kinds of control policy scenarios,which are accelerating backward production capacity elimination,appropriate government intervention,and industrial structure optimization,and these scenarios simulation are carried out to provide reference for the successful completion of the capacity reduction task of coal industry in China.The main conclusions of this paper:(1)Excessive intervention by local governments is the fundamental reason for overcapacity of coal.(2)Under the existing management system,the capacity control of local government is less than that of the central government for the purpose of pursuing the local economic benefits,which will violate the central government's will,thus increasing the capacity expansion of the coal industry.However,the problem of coal excess capacity is not impossible to solve.It can be deduced in theory: if the central government carries out a certain reward for the local government to complete the capacity control according to the requirements to make up for the temporary local economic decline,the local government will,to a certain extent,fulfill the requirements of the central government in accordance with the requirements.So we can control excess capacity.(3)In the short term,appropriate intervention of the government to the coal market is an effective means to dissolve the overcapacity.However,in the long run,the government should gradually reduce the intervention on the coal market and let the market play the role of the fittest;accelerating the elimination of backward capacity is the important means to dissolve the overcapacity of coal;the optimization of industrial structure is a dynamic process.Industrial structure optimization is a long-term way to improve the quality of economic growth,improve the environment and eliminate excess capacity.