Research On The Impact Of Financial Development And Urbanization On Carbon Emission In Yangtze River Delta

With the rapid growth of the global economy,carbon dioxide emissions are also increasing sharply.Therefore,under the background of global climate change,Greenhouse Effect,low-carbon economy has become a new trend of economic development.As the core of market economy,finance has the function of adjusting industrial structure and allocating resources rationally.The improvement of urbanization level is an important symbol of economic development and an inevitable choice for agricultural society to leap into industrial society.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of financial development and urbanization on carbon emissions.First of all,from three aspects of scale effect,structural effect and technical effect,this paper combs the theoretical mechanism of financial development’s influence on carbon emissions,and from the theory of population migration,The theory of urban structure and urban environment explains the relationship between urbanization and carbon emission.Secondly,the paper analyzes the current situation of financial development,urbanization and carbon emission in Yangtze River Delta,and analyzes the correlation degree between variables by using grey correlation method.The results show that:financial scale,financial efficiency,Urbanization has obvious correlation with carbon emission and obvious correlation with carbon emission intensity.Then,we use cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition to study the equilibrium effects of financial development,urbanization and carbon emissions.The results show:(1)all the variables are first-order univariate,and there is a stable equilibrium relationship for a long time.(2)Financial efficiency and urbanization are the Granger causes of carbon emissions,and financial scale,urbanization is the Granger cause of carbon emission intensity.(3)Financial scale,financial efficiency,short term dynamic equilibrium of urbanization on carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity all have reverse correction mechanism,and there are no short-term fluctuations.Have a greater deviation from the long-term equilibrium trend;(4)carbon emissions by the size of the financial impact,mainly to the negative impact on short-term,long-term positive impact;carbon emissions were the impact of financial efficiency and urbanization,with positive impact;carbon emission intensity from the scale of financial shockspositive,short-term,long-term negative;carbon emission intensity respectively by the financial efficiency,the impact of urbanization,are negative impact;(5)the variance contribution rate of carbon emissions are influenced by their own and financial efficiency,financial scale effect,affected by the minimum variance of urbanization;the contribution of carbon emission intensity The order of rate is its contribution >financial efficiency > financial scale > urbanization.Finally,we use the state space model and the mediating effect method to study the financial development,the unbalanced effect of urbanization on carbon emissions,and the mediating effect of financial development and urbanization.The results show that:(1)The impact of financial scale changes on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta is positive in the short term and negative in the long run,negative in the short term and positive in the long term in the financial efficiency changes,and the impact of urbanization changes on carbon emissions is always positive.(2)In the short term,the financial scale change of Yangtze River Delta has positive effect on carbon emission intensity,and long-term positive effect on carbon emission intensity,and the influence of financial efficiency on carbon emission intensity increases first and then weakens with time.In the short term,the changing carbon emission intensity of urbanization has a positive effect and a long-term negative effect,but it is not statistically significant.(3)The results of intermediary effect show that urbanization is a positive partial intermediary effect in the path of financial scale and financial efficiency influencing carbon emissions.The mediating effect accounts for 71.64%and 61.69% of the total effect respectively.The financial scale and financial efficiency play a negative role in the path of urbanization affecting carbon emissions.The mediating effect accounted for 27.40% and 2.53% of the total effect respectively,and the financial scale and financial efficiency played a parallel intermediary effect in the process of urbanization on the carbon emissions,and the individual effects accounted for 24.39% and 1.055% of the total effect,respectively.(4)Urbanization plays a positive part intermediary effect in the path of financial efficiency affecting carbon emission intensity,accounting for 66.37% of the total effect,and financial efficiency plays a part intermediary effect in the path of urbanization affecting carbon emission intensity,and the proportion of financial efficiency is 2.53% of the total effect.