Scenario Simulation And Uncertainty Analysis On Power Sector's Carbon Reduction Potential From Shale Gas

Power sector is one of the top carbon and air pollution emitters,so the energy structure adjustment in power sector will play a leading role in China's low carbon development.But it would be a tough task because of its highly dependence on the coal and the instability of non-fossil fuels.The US has taken the advantage of shale gas to optimize the energy structure in power sector.China also has abundant shale gas resources and the shale gas commercial production is getting started in SiChuan and ChongQin.However,the carbon reduction potential from shale gas depends on its own property like technical uncertainty and policy promotion.So it is meaningful to simulate the carbon reduction potential in power sector with prorer model andfen analyze the influence from shale gas properties and relative policy.This paper first recognizes the properties and uncertainty of the shale gas,then use the modified multi-region optimization model to simulate the shale gas carbon reduction potential.Based on the scenario analysis,the results indicate that shale gas can make big contribution to the power sector on some conditions.In the base scenario,the shale gas begin to be used after 2025,and threce shale gas power generation is 418 TWh,which means 85.3 billioncubic meter being used.In the technical breakthrough scenarios,when the shale gas price increased from 0.8 to 1.8 RMB/m3,the shale gas power generation changed from 1205 to 750 TWh.And the increased carbon intensity caused by methane leakage also has great impact on the shale gas in power sector.When the shale gas carbon intensity increases from 2.27 to 2.67 kg/m3,the shale gas power generation decreases from 763 to 55 TWh at the price of 1.8 RMB/m3.And the montecarlo analysis results show that when the price and carbon intensity change at the same time,the shale gas power generation varied from 479 to 116 TWh,and the average value is 908 TWh.As for the policy implication,the simulation results show that the climate policy such as the carbon target will promote the shale gas in power sector.While the environmental policy on the air pollution control has little influence on the shale gas in power sector.