Research On Low Carbon Transition Path And Optimization Strategy Of China's Power Sector

Building a safe,economic,clean and sustainable modern energy industry system is the fundamental requirement of the energy revolution,and how to effectively realize the low carbon transition of the energy system is the fundamental problem.As the core of modern energy system,the power industry plays a key role in the low carbon transition of the energy system.For a long time,carbon dioxide and various pollutants produced by burning fossil fuels have had great adverse effects on China's ecological environment and national health.In order to reduce air pollution and cope with climate change,the Chinese government has formulated a series of clean and low carbon development plans and has made a number of commitments in the world to reduce carbon emissions and improve the proportion of non-fossil energy.The signing of the Paris Agreement further puts forward more stringent requirements for the contracting parties,future carbon emission.As the largest carbon emission country in the world,the pressure of reducing carbon emission in China is huge.As a large carbon emission sector,low carbon transition in power industry is imperative.The main research content of this paper is to design the mid-long term low carbon transition path of China's power industry under the background of energy transition and low carbon development,as well as providing the optimization decision.First of all,this paper expounds the theories of system transition,low carbon development of power sector,and power planning,and clarifies the significance of low carbon transition in China's power industry under the constraints of the Paris Agreement,etc.Secondly,the carbon emission forecast model,the power demand forecasting method and the power planning method are expounded.The power demand forecasting method is selected and the Integraterd Resource Strategy Planning model is constructed after that.Thirdly,the paper analyzes the temperature-increment target proposed by the Paris Agreement,and studies the carbon emission budget of China's power system under the target's constraint in 2050.Then,the technical economy of the low carbon power technology options from the supply and demand side is evaluated.Finally,the low carbon transition path of China's power industry in 2050 is designed based on the demand forecast and evaluation results.The power planning in China during 2020-2050 is expected through the example analysis,and the optimization suggestions are put forward.In this paper,the Integrated Resource Strategy Planning model is used to design the low carbon transition path of China's power sector in mid-long term,the optimization strategies and policy recommendations are further proposed.The research findings of this paper have certain reference significance for the low carbon transition of China's power sector even energy systems,and also make contributions to the realization of temperature-increment target proposed by the Paris Agreement.